The Market agents They begin to worry about the lack of accumulation of international reserves based on the commitment signed by the Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Actually, The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo You are trying to move forward with your original plan of Crush the exchange rate to lower inflationat least until October, even if it conspires against the objective of adding dollars.
That is where the recent statements of Kristalina Georgieva When he said that Argentina has to “Maintain the course of the reforms “ Despite the electoral context. Such seesz The official was talking to Caputo.
In fact, the Agreement announced in April, After a March in which inflation had jumped at 3.7%, it can indicate that for the IMF Argentina I had to devalue its currency to accumulate dollars and then return to the path of inflation. You just have to remember that The Central Bank is allowed to buy dollars above the $ 1,000 floor if it is to allocate to reservations.
But from the Casa Rosada and from the Palace of Finance it seems that they want to show everyone, both critical economists and the organism itself, which are wrong and that They can add dollars without devaluing, carrying the value at less than $ 1000.
The points of the agreement that are in doubt for June
The consultant Vector It deals with, in its latest weekly report, unraveling that doubt that the government would be leaving, not only because it does not accumulate currencies, but because it also warns that they could be generating other types of breaches that could lead to asking for a “waiver.”
“Beyond the obvious difficulty to meet the goals imposed (especially of accumulation of reserves), the Government is playing at the limit with the agreed In the agreement with the IMF, ”warns the consultant.
According to estimates of Cohen financial alliesthe central bank should add about US $ 2,000 million in June to fulfill the mid -year goal. For December, it would have to add other US $ 5,000 million, which are precisely, which lost between January and March defending the backward dollar.
Another point in doubt, according to vector is that “contrary to the spirit of the agreement already repeated it again and again by different officials and even the president, The disbursements made by the agency during the month of April were not entirely to clean up the balance of the Bcra but A part went to the treasure to probably face compromises and obligations in dollars. ”
Vector adds another point in doubt. States that “the Becra balance of 2024 enabled transfer utilities of said period for more than $ 11 billion to the Treasury, something that also contradicts the letter of the signed agreement ”.
“In addition, and although the economic team minimizes it, that transfer of profits does not necessarily entails a neutral monetary effect, that is, It implies monetary issuance in case the treasure uses those tickets to deal with their commitments ”, The study says. The same appointment that is not achieved the 100% debt rollover in pesos, something that is already happening. On Wednesday, May 14, $ 8 billion explores a letter.
Vector also points out that a few days ago there were very important future dollar operations that appeased the exchange rate. As a fourth doubt, he says that “the suspicion that the operation in the future dollar market has come from the BCRA (something they had already done in previous months although to a lesser extent) would also breach the letter of the agreement.”, Because it would be a way to intervene in the change market. ““Waiver” in sight or did we still not see all rabbits to get out of the galley?the report concludes.
Source: Ambito
