Waiting for the official data, January inflation is heading for 4% and guarantees a difficult quarter

Waiting for the official data, January inflation is heading for 4% and guarantees a difficult quarter

At this point, Ricardo Delgado from the consultancy Analytics It also estimates a 5% increase in food and the general index for January at 4%.

Added to the rise in food this month is the update of the prepaid medicine service (9%), the adjustments in tolls, fixed telephony, internet, television and metered parking.

What is also striking is the dispersion of the values. In the last twelve months, food has increased by an average of 58%, according to the consultant that Marina Dal Poggetto directs, led by beef – 75.1% – and vegetables – 73.4%-. At the other extreme, fruits rose “only” 39.5% and dairy products and eggs 38.8%.

So much for Ecolatina as for Orlando Ferreres & Associates the index in January would stand at 3.5%. But among the economists consulted, concern is expressed about the progress of core inflation (which excludes goods with seasonal behavior or regulated products and services). For the consulting firm that Roberto Lavagna founded, it stands at 3.6% and for Analytica more than 4%.

It should be remembered that in December core inflation registered a rise of 4.4%. In this way, the year ended with an increase of 55%, four points above the total index and at an average monthly rate of 3.7%. For other studies, general inflation may be higher. The Equilibra data show a variation that is close to 4%, while Econometrica, the consulting firm run by Ramiro Castiñeira, calculates 4%.

Regarding the immediate perspectives, it is pointed out that factors such as the acceleration in the adjustment of the official dollar and the announced increase in rates will continue to put a “high” floor on the index. According to the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) released by the Central Bank, consultants forecast that inflation would be between 3.5 and 4% in the first half of the year.

Source: Ambito

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