Despite great demand: prices for battery raw materials are sometimes clear

Important raw materials for e-car production such as cobalt, lithium and graphite are becoming increasingly cheaper despite enormous demand. Especially the production countries of China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have significantly raised their production, according to a raw material report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The prices for lithium rose by eight times between 2021 and 2022 – on the other hand, they have decreased by over 80 percent since 2023. The prices are also declining for graphite, cobalt and nickel.

According to the IEA, the significantly increased offer brings three countries: more cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, more nickel from Indonesia and more graphite as well as rare earths from China. The three states thus consolidated their market power when reducing raw materials.

“The average market share of the three leading mining countries in the most important energy minerals rose from 73 percent in 2020 to 77 percent in 2024,” said the IEA. The important lithium, on the other hand, also comes from aspiring production countries such as Argentina or Zimbabwe.

Lief chain is becoming increasingly susceptible

The IEA experts warn the very large concentration in the market in the event of a crisis in the event of a crisis. As possible scenarios, they state weather events, technical disorders or trade barriers.

If the most important supplier of a rare earth or a battery metal fails, an average of half of the demand remains unchecked, the IEA calculates in a scenario for 2035. The consequences for industry could be devastating-with enormous price jumps for electric car batteries in this country.

In the meantime, China not only takes up a leadership role in the breakdown and processing of many metals, but also in recycling. Two thirds of growth in battery recycling have been held there since 2020.