April inflation finally He broke 3% as the government foresaw and slowed down with force compared to March, when located at 2.8%. In this way So far from 2025 the consumer price index (CPI) accumulated 11.6%while the interannual variation was 47.3%, the least in the last four years, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). It should be noted that in mid -April There was the partial opening of the stocks and the flotation of the official exchange rate between bands, which led to the dollar first to $ 1,230 and then moderate the jump to $ 1,150; That is, the value of the green ticket climbed the triple that inflation.
At the level of the categories, the goods and services in The core ipc (+3.2%) led the increases, followed by prices Seasonal (+1.9%) and the Regulated (+1.8%). In general, Services 3%advanced, compared to Estate with 2.7%. In turn, the division that recorded the greatest incidence in all regions was Food and drinks which rose slightly above the average since it advanced 2.9% due to the increase in Meat and derivatives, milk, dairy products and eggs and bread and cereals.
The biggest rise through items was for Restaurants and hotels that climbed 4.1% per increase in food and drinks consumed outside the home And he followed him Recreation and culture (+4,%), mainly due to increases in recreational and cultural services. While the two divisions that registered the minor variations in April 2025 were Transport (+1.7%) and home equipment and maintenance (+0.9%).
As for the various areas of the country there was very little variation: where prices were less uploaded in Patagonia and Northeast With 2.7%, it followed with 2.8%, GBA and the Pampas region And finally the Northwest and Cuyo with 2.9%.
New exchange scheme and stock output: the “Pass Through” was void
Tobias Pejkovich Balbianieconomist of Facimexin talk with Scopeanalyzed: “April inflation was 2.8% monthly and 47.3% year -on -year, below expected and reflecting that the pass Through of the new exchange scheme was null. In the month in which the exchange bands were introduced and the stocks were built for human people, the monthly inflation decelerated 0.9pp against 3.7% in March. Therefore, I think it is an extremely positive fact, with the additional seasoning that year -on -year inflation reached its lower value in four years (since April 2021). “
The expert also said that the monthly deceleration is explained by seasonal and regulated, while the core inflation remained stable against March. In detail, Pejkovich Balbiani said that Seasonal prices rose 1.9% (-6.6pp against March), with fruits and vegetables falling 2.1% and 0.6% monthly, respectively.
In turn, Regulated prices rose 1.8% monthly (-1.4pp), favored by electricity, gas & fuels that rose only 0.2% m/m. The core inflation was 3.2% and, in greater detail, “we estimate that the inflation core of goods was 3.0% m/m (+1.0pp); while The inflation core of services excluding rentals was 3.1% (-0.6pp)reflecting a favorable dynamic in the uncompable, “the economist closed from Facimex.
For its part, Rocío BisangEco Go economist, also in talk with this media analyzed how the exchange performance in April was: “It was a month that had two dynamics marked in terms of inflation: on the one hand The first half was somewhat more similar to Marchwhere the uncertainty Regarding what the agreement with the Fund implied in exchange terms press parallels and upward inflation. And on the other, A second halfafter leaving the stocks, which was somewhat calmer, with The dollar below the center of the band which brought some peace of mind at priceswhich ended up showing a somewhat more moderate increase to what was initially believed. “
The expert, however, made a caveat, sustaining that this occurs in a context where Salaries are still quite resentful, and consumption does not end up recovering at all, which puts a limit to the increase in prices. “I think that a fact to highlight is that beyond the good number, the nucleus still remains high and shows some decline, accumulating three months above 3%,” he said.
April inflation: regulated and seasoned played in favor, new anchor?
The economist and director Analytica, Claudio Capraulo, said it was a “Very good fact” Although core inflation remained constant. “Seasonality prices play again.he added.
In turn, Juan Manuel Telecheaalso economistHe added that “Much of the lower inflation is explained by the brake of regulated prices. If we look at the core inflation, it did exactly the same as last month, located at a level similar to the 7 months ago.”
Finally, Gabriel Caamañoeconomist in Outlierstressed that “Seasonal and regulated are running a lot below 2 monthlyseasoned decelerated versus March (+8.4%). The regulated also, but less ( +3.2% in March) there is the explanation of why the general dropped to +2.8% monthly with stable nucleus. The regulated are anchor this year. “
Source: Ambito
