Behind him Strong adjustment of Javier Milei’s governmenthe consumption begins to rehearse a slight recovery in the first quarter of 2025although it does not reach the levels prior to the assumption of the libertarian administration, according to Nielseniq. Registered private salaries, meanwhile, also recovered, but still do not reach the level of 2023. These data show “a rearrangement scenario, not full rebound,” they emphasized from the company.
“The Argentine consumer is leaving a long crisis, with a much more rational and selective profile “he said Javier GonzálezCommercial Director of Nielseniq Argentina.
“Although recovery signs appear, a logic of extreme care of spending still predominates”González stands out. In that line, Consumers shrink the size of the purchases, choose cheaper brands and look for promotions.
Consumer rearraction: cheaper products and promotions
More than 70% The categories reduced the average purchase size and low -price brands gained market share. Even the volume sold under promotion increased by 110% year -on -year during the first quarter of 2025 and already represents the 39% of the total basket. In that sense, the number of articles in promotion was multiplied by 2.5 compared to the previous year. In contrast, The volume without promotion fell 2%.
The “sincere” of last year prices also impacted fully on consumption: The average prices in supermarkets grew more than 300% In 2024, which forced a total reconfiguration of the acquired products.
In the first quarter of the year, the basket mass consumption presented a fall in 1.6%according to Nielseniqalthough in the basket the recovery of the categories were highlighted Personal care and Cleaning.
The large supermarket chains begin to show positive signs of consumption thanks to the use of promotions. Although independent self -services continues in decline, since they lost competitiveness in prices and already closed more than 1,700 stores since 2019, mainly in the Greater Buenos Aires.
The Warehouses They recovered 3% sales, while pharmacies and perfumeries did 12%, being the categories with the best performance at the start of the year. “Traditional channels gain ground with a smaller assortment, focused on low prices and accessible formats, especially in cleaning and cosmetics “they highlighted.
Consumption: rearrangement is partial and unequal
After the strong recession, the “rearrangement” of consumption He gives himself from the hand of the higher socioeconomic levelsthat they turn to the acquisition of sumptuous goods such as real estate, cars and foreign tourism. While the Low are still laggingwith up to 32% of its expenditure concentrated in food and drinks compared to 14% in the highs.
This logic occurs in the midst of a faint recovery of private wages, which in February and March stagnated. Even so, assets still do not recover the level of purchasing power of 2023 and lose up to 35% since 2017, the year of best real salary.
Consumption: The keys to 2025
After the collapse of 2024, the Consumption begins to replace along with salariesbut with strong asymmetries between the different socioeconomic levels. The recovery seems to be segmented by income level and commercial channel.
“The drop in 2025, with recovery of categories of value, premium brands and larger sizes. The supermarket channel drives the trend of the hand of promotions,” they said.
In addition, the evolution of real income will be key in the second semester. If the improvement is held, some value categories could grow again. But if the income stagnates, the risk is that this incipient reactivation is just a faint rear.
Source: Ambito
