The members of the Staff of International Monetary Fund (IMF) look at the Minister of Economy with some concernLuis Caputo, because they hoped that at this point of the year the Central Bank I was already buying reservations to meet the goal agreed with the agency.
The reality is that the financial entity does not intervene in the market, and seems to be prioritizing the target of low inflation, before the electoral year. There the GEORGIEVA KRIISTALINA DECLARATIONS, The number one of the entity, who asked the Argentines not to depart from the road in the year of the elections. He would not have been talking to the voters, but Javier Milei.
The agreement, according to numbers of the Cohen Argentina stock company, implies that in 2025 you have to add US $ 5,000 million. Of them, About US $ 2,000 million must be mid -year. With that and the credits of organisms, the BCRA would reach December 31 with positive net reserves at US $ 1,600 million.
So far nothing has happened. The BCRA can buy within the exchange band between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400 If I wanted to take advantage of the maximum liquidation season, but you are not doing it, encouraging the idea that the dollar has to go to the floor.
According to government and BCRA officials, the way of adding those dollars It would not be for current account surplus, but asking for more money borrowed again.
The government has a “trilema”
In this regard, the economist Eduardo Levy Yeyati explained to a group of investors convened by ADCAP Financial Group that “the agreement with the IMF cleared the risks in the coming months but does not clear the trilema between lowering inflation, accumulating reserves and growing.”
“The discussion with the background I was locked by the exchange problem, not so much for the stocks. The lifting of the stocks served the Government to advance a problem that sooner or later had to attack and step to clothe an initiative recovery narrative, ”Yeyati explained.
The economist described that in the discussion with the IMF staff, The stock was a “secondary theme” Because the axis was to raise the exchange rate to a level that allowed buying dollars to pay private creditors and IMF himself.
But Yeyati warns that “what the government did effectively was to opt for a realignment of what was the original ‘crawling’ that was 1% and take it to 30% and the establishment of a band that would call unilateral. ”
“The agreement was that they were going to buy within the band”
“So the 30% crawl rose and it became the roof of the band. Today there is perception that the exchange rate is floating with a very slight administration of the BCRA but but does not finish solving the problem of reserves ”, explained.
In that sense, the analyst recalled that “The understanding with the fund was that the government was going to buy inside the band reserves taking advantage of the seasonality of the liquidation of exporters of exporters ”.
But warns that the economic team, Behind the background or with some informal venia, “he continued to prioritize the decline in inflation.”
“While there is no Intervention to depress the price of the dollar there is a BCRA abstinence Buying few dollars at a time when the influx of dollars tends to appreciate the currency, ”he added.
That is why he argues that “if the accumulation is not now, one perceives that it will be more difficult later in fourth quarter and this opens a door to a potential tension with the background that is still overlapping. ”
“Talking to people in the backgroundThey expected the government to accumulate reservations. That tension will seem, first in the goals in the next review. They are likely to stay short. It is true that The government is planning financial operations to raise them with debt, but Most likely to have to negotiate a ‘waiver’ ”, advance.
The risk of questioning “the bridge” until the return to markets
The analyst indicated that “the market will perceive it as negative news and can inhibit the compression of esprads that was Overnttered in the program that is thinking about how a bridge towards the recovery of access to markets, ideally at the beginning of next year. ”
“There is no way to compression at 400 points as the government and some analysts imagined. If this is so, an important source of risk opens. If the financial program of the private debt service is not clear to the market, ”added Levi Yeyati.
The professional added that this situation “Sooner or later it will begin to weigh on the credit and investments that Argentina needs to grow will not appear“In the case of the large investment incentive regime (Rigi), the companies that announced projects have not yet started. The professional indicated that” they are waiting for the external front is resolved. “
In that sense, he indicated that it seems that the government “It will postpone the reservations recovery process and after the elections.”
This is where the insistence appears in a new laundering, in the second stage. The government would discuss again dollars that end in Credits to companies, which in turn have to sell the foreign exchange to the BCRA, who would buy reservations. In Adcap they warned that this scheme was carried out in the first version of the laundering, but failed to succeed, since in March he gave signs of exhaustion with the rise of inflation and the outcome of the new understanding with the background, with the contribution of US $20,000 million.
Source: Ambito
