The data is well -known, but that is why it stops stressing own and strangers. The Central Bank (BCRA) has fair net reserves to pay the next debt expiration. And it will be zero again. That is, while the BCRA liquid reserves are located at US $ 16,900 million, the nets, which are those that do not include the treasure and bopreal deposits, are around US $ 4,900 million but On July 9, US $ 4,500 million expiresmore than a third of the dollars which disbursed the International Monetary Fund (IMP).
To decompress future tensions, the government bets on several fronts. Apart from the announcement that will be made in the next few hours related to a kind of “Clean file” Banking anticipated by Scopein recent days the machinery of the “Carry Trade”.
The credit returned to make the bicycle
To prime this wheel, Credit makers in dollars have returnedwith the consequent “benefit” since they liquidate those currencies in the official market. According to the BCRA data, the stock of private loans in foreign currency climbed again and accumulates a stock that is already superior to the time of the stocks output. Strictly speaking, it is located at US $14,700 million to May 9, about US $ 500 million above the previous brand, and each day continues to grow.
According to specialists, The Government pushed the interest of companies to capitalize on the differential between rates of interest paid by investment in pesos and the virtual expectation of devaluation set by future dollar contracts. Thus, the companies that can do so take credit in dollars to make their placements in pesos, until the time comes to reintegrate the dollars.
If a retrospective analysis is done, the “Carry Trade”, one of the dogmas that the Government launched, It meets at least 20% Since he left the exchange rate. In the last 30 days, the official exchange rate accumulates an increase of only 4.7%, while MEP dollars and counting on liquidation (CCL) retreated 14.5%and 13.6%, respectively. In the informal square, the price of the blue dollar accumulated a 15.6%drop.
Linked weight bonus, another way to add dollars
The data of the last hours is that Minister Luis Caputo plans to use an additional resource: the issuance of bonds in pesos that will be signed in dollars, a measure that complements the rest of the measures. The reading they do is as follows: that issuance would enable the government not to make the expected currency purchases within the exchange band (in the $ 1,000 area) and, at the same time, add reservations in the Central Bank, necessary to meet the goals established with the IMF. They think of the Palace of Finance that, in this way, could capture dollars of foreign funds and local banks, preserving monetary stability and the target of disinflation.
This is also understood what happened in recent days, through A deep and active intervention in the future dollar marketwhere the government has drastically reduced implicit rates, encouraging the “carry trade” and enhancing the attractiveness of the bonds, which could perform about 30% per year.
The urgency of accumulating more than US $ 4,000 million in reservations in the coming weeks, To meet IMF goalsand to cover debt maturities for US $ 4,500 million in July, drives this strategy. As mentioned, in government analysis, bonds in pesos will allow treasure to channel currencies directly to the BCRA, without intervening in the market -free market or emitting weights that may press inflation.
The bonds in pesos, even in the design phase, could adopt a format similar to the “Linked dollar” or “Linked peso”, with adjustment by official exchange rate, or replicate the 2018-2019 dollars. With expected rates close to 30% per year, they would exceed the implicit rates of futures, making the combination of both instruments attractive for banks and investment funds.
The recent flexibility, which reduces the minimum period of permanence for foreign funds to six months, together with the stability of the wholesale dollar, reinforces interest in these bonds. “The BCRA is creating an environment where dollars flow to the systemtaking advantage of the gap between the fees in pesos and those of the futures, ”explained a City operator.
Source: Ambito
