After ten months of recovery of economic activityanalysts and consultants warn that in March there was a “brake” due, among other things, to the acceleration of inflation and exchange uncertainty in the previous one of the partial opening of the stocks and the flotation of the official exchange rate between bands. So, Seven of the ten main sectors showed less dynamism with respect to the closure of 2024revealed Mediterranean Foundation, highlighting that sectors such as Basic metals, or plastics suffered strong setbacks.
According to the consultant Orlando Ferreresthe economy contracted 1.2% monthly in Marchwhile growing 7.8% year -on -year, which accumulated for the first quarter of the year a rise of 7.3%.
For its part, from Mediterranean Foundation compared the last quarter of 2024 with the first quarter of this yearand could determine that, in the case of the three sectors that have better performance, Only two are accelerating: financial intermediation and electricity, water and gasboth with “outstanding growth”, while mining It follows at the same rate that ended 2024. Among the sectors that slow down, the case of Hotels and restaurantsstrongly affected by the problems of competitiveness and by The tourist boom abroad.
Now, if the accumulated between November 2023 and February 2025 is taken into account, the recovery came from the hand of Financial, Agro and Mining Intermediationthat take off from the rest of the productive sectors in relation to their performance. While the food industry He recovered at levels comparable to the Mining or agriculturethere is a set of industries that are at a level of decline as deep as the one that affects the construction: basic metals (-23%), non -metallic minerals (-14%), textiles (-9%), rubber and plastic (-9%).
Economic activity: March was a key month, full of challenges
In talk with this medium, Gonzalo Semillachief economist Creebbasaid that March was a typically seasonal month at the inflationary level, but that it was also influenced by external effects like the Commercial War between United States and China: “Specifically, how much to the imposition of tariffs (10% average), affecting, in our case, national exportsbeing our most expensive products and services and impacting the international offices to the north “, pointed out.
And expanded his analysis by maintaining that “this brought with him Exchange turbulenceaffecting the exchange rate, pressing its rise and a greater intervention of the central (fall of reserves). In turn, in full advance with a new agreement with the IMF and uncertainty regarding the new exchange scheme (drop in the stock) “.
Economic activity: the sectors that resist and the most affected
For the economist Federico Vaccarezzathe sectors that probably more pushed growth in March were financial, oil exploitation and agribusiness, while Partial recovery began to be noticed in the construction sector. “The manufacturing industry has shown better indicators than 2024 but, even far from the activity levels of 2022 and 2023. And finally, The consumption that still does not end up recovering but from April begins to be more optimistic“This expert told Scope.
Thus, he determined that March could be ranging between 4.2% to 4.7% compared to the same month of 2024while The first quarter, could mark an average growth around 5.2% or 5.5%. “Anyway, it must be borne in mind that there are some concentrated sectors that are pushing strongly, while others linked to production and consumption are not yet finished recovering,” he closed.
For its part, Seed He also provided his opinion on which sectors would be most affected in March: “Within the most beaten Automotive (0km cars and motorcycle patents), as well as those used, Cement offices and therefore the sector of the construction and industrial like the sectors of agricultural machinery, auto parts, foundry, medical equipment (All these confirm metallurgical production, where March registered a monthly drop greater than 1%) “.
Source: Ambito
