The former “export world champion” Germany has been weakening for years. The mood fluctuates between more and less dark.
The German export industry looks a little less pessimistic about the next few months: In May, the export maintenance index rose from minus 9.4 points to minus 3.0 points after a low in April. The exporters have a sigh of relief in the customs conflict with the US government, said IFO-Umfragelleiter Klaus Wohlrabe. “However, caution is advised, because there is still no fundamental agreement between the USA and the EU with a view to the amount of the tariffs.” The mood has also lightened up somewhat in the two most important industrial branches car and mechanical engineering, the expectations of which are therefore only slightly negative with minus 0.8 or minus 1.1 points. The total indicator for all branches of industry was in 2024 and so far in 2025 under zero.
In April, export expectations had fallen on one of the worst values since the 2008/2009 financial crisis. The main cause was the inheritance increases threatened by the US government. The IFO Institute interviews several thousand companies every month.
Source: Stern
