Logically, in a context of maximum pressure on BCRA reserves and the dollar, the entry of genuine dollars into the economy is always good news. Given the greater availability of dollars in the market, the Central Bank last week totaled purchases for some US$54 million, and the February balance for now is positive at approximately US$9 million.
In this framework, as detailed by the Rosario Stock Exchange, the volume of wheat sold in the domestic market already exceeds 14.6 million tons. Of this total, more than 2.7 Mt have not yet set their price, thus being the largest volume pending setting recorded at this time of year. Traditionally, this is a very common operation in which producers deliver the grain but set the price at a certain time, waiting for international prices to be the most convenient.
Of the total with a price pending fixing, 85.7% corresponds to purchases by exporters, a percentage comfortably higher than the 68.6% average of the last five years. This proportion is only surpassed by the 2019/20 campaign, when almost 88% of purchases without a fixed price corresponded to wheat exports, with the remaining part corresponding to the milling industry.
Regarding prices, During the week, the buying points for delivery in the next 30 days in the Rosario Physical Market were around US$243 per ton, US$8 above last week. For the grain to be unloaded, delivery in March and April, the purchase offers were located at US$250 per ton, 10 dollars above the values of last Friday, while for deliveries for the middle of the year, the offers rose US$ s3 and remained at US$245 per ton for June and July.
Additionally, MatbaRofex futures topped $250/t for March, regaining ground after early February lows, but still $8 below the high they traded at in mid-November 2021.
In this framework, of high prices and volume to be set, it is to be expected that the income of wheat dollars will continue to be strong. A good preamble to what will finally be the corn and soybean harvest that is currently still shrouded in uncertainty due to the drought, where losses of more than US$2.5 billion are already estimated, while oilseed prices are approaching at US$600 per ton.
Source: Ambito
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