The economist said the government has 50% of success, but warned about social risks if bottlenecks are not corrected.
The economist Ricardo Arriazu surprised with a Hard diagnosis on the economic direction of the country during your participation in the seventh edition of the Amcham Summitwhere he also left a direct warning to the president Javier Milei: “Destruction will be faster than creation”
In his exhibition, Arriazu evaluated that the libertarian program has today 50% probabilities of successthanks to the agreement with the IMF and the support of the United States. However, he warned that The economic transformation process could leave “poverty and discontent pockets” if social imbalances are not properly managed.
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“We are the only country with twin surplus and country risk at 650 points”
The specialist remarked that the Historical distrust of Argentina It is a key barrier to attract investment. “The world agrees with what is being done, but wonders how to know that we are not going to repeat the past again,” he said.
He compared the Argentine case with neighboring countries: “Paraguay and Uruguay, with weaker fiscal accounts, have a country risk below 100 points. We have twin surplus and we are in 650. It is for having defaulted nine times.”
Sector Radiography: Agro, Energy, Mining and Construction
Arriazu reviewed the panorama of the main productive sectors:
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Agro: “It reacts quickly with correct incentives. Eliminating withholdings and lowering input prices is not so difficult.”
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Energy: “We could reach a surplus of US $ 32,000 million if the promised infrastructure is completed.”
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Mining: “We are like Vaca Muerta in 2013. Trust, investment and time are needed. Only in 2030 we could be exporting strong.”
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Construction: “Inflation destroys credit and there are 4 million housing needs. Without inflation, the sector will take off.”
He also projected a Important jump in exportsbut warned: “Argentina will return a expensive country. There will be destruction and creation, and destruction will be faster.”
“You cannot separate the economy from politics and sociology”
In the final stretch of his exhibition, Arriazu appealed to political realism. “I recommend doing a General Balance Study to anticipate bottlenecks and social consequences of the transition. It is impossible to separate the economy from politics and sociology”He said.
The message resonated as a direct warning to the government, which advances with structural reforms while social tensions grow and recession hits vulnerable sectors.
Source: Ambito
