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Customs dispute and the economic crisis: more bankruptcies are expected
The permanently difficult economic situation forces companies bankrupt. There are also new risks because of the customs dispute with the USA. Groß insolvencies are particularly worried.
In view of the economic crisis and customs dispute, the credit insurer Allianz Trade expects more company bankruptcies in Germany – including many large insolvencies with high damage. “Due to the customs spiral, the insolvencies in the Federal Republic of 2025 are expected to increase by 11 percent compared to the previous year to around 24,400 cases,” says a current study.
Allianz Trade had previously expected an increase of ten percent. In 2026, another increase should follow by three percent on 25,050 cases.
As early as 2024, the number of bankruptcies had grown by a fifth (plus 22 percent). “According to France, Germany is the most affected market in Western Europe – and one of a few countries that still has to expect increasing numbers in 2026,” writes the credit insurer.
But it is not only the total numbers that were worried, but also the constantly high numbers of large insolvencies with many affected jobs.
In view of the cloudy economic prospects in Germany as well as world trade and many uncertainties due to the customs dispute, the credit insurer also calculated in 2025 with many large insolvencies and thus high damage, said Milo Bogaerts, head of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. “With their suppliers, these particularly large holes tear into the coffers – with possible domino effects on the supply chains.”
Record at the bankruptcy of large insolvencies
The past year has already marked a negative record for large insolvencies in Germany, said Bogaerts. There were a total of 87 large insolvencies with a total turnover of 17.4 billion euros – an increase of a good third of the previous year (64 cases). “Also in 2025 there is no breather.”
Pure children’s construction, fashion trade, car supplier
The negative trend continues: In the first quarter of 2025, 16 large companies had to register bankruptcy. Among them were three clinics as well as three large companies in retail and two car suppliers and chemical companies. The fashion manufacturer Gerry Weber had filed for bankruptcy in March, recently announcing the closure of all business.
dpa
Source: Stern
