Argentina entered a discount time to meet the difficult goal of accumulating reservations included in the extended facilities agreement signed last April with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The first review of that program will be made with data next month and, if Argentina meets the agreed commitments, the agency will turn US $ 2,000 million to the Central Bank. At that time, according to the MEP’s committed goal, the Net BCRA reserves must be at a negative level of about US $ 2,500 million.
Currently, according to diverse calculations of private consultants, The net reserves of the central are negative for between US $ 7,600 YU $ S8.4 billionso Argentina has a few weeks to add reservations between US $ 5,000 YU $ S5.9 billion.
“The unknown remains how reserves will accumulate. Just fifteen business days are missing for June 13, when the ‘Deadline’ (deadline) of the net reserves goal of the second quarter of the year will be completed “Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) observed on Monday in a report.
The three alternatives that the Government has to accumulate reservations
To achieve the goal, Argentina has various alternatives. One possibility is that the Central Bank bought dollars in the change market
However, according to the new exchange policy scheme launched by the Government of Javier Milei in mid -April, the Central Bank promised not to buy dollars while the dollar cite above $ 1,000.
“If the government maintains the policy of not acquiring reservations by intervening in the exchange market within the bands of the scheme provided in mid -April, The accumulation via purchases in the market -free market will continue to be void “, The LCG consultant pointed out in a report.
Another alternative is Immediately specify the operation ‘Repo’ that the Central Bank announced in April that it will do and for which it plans to place financial assets between international banks to obtain US $ 2,000 million. Argentina could also get about US $ 1.6 billion of the disbursements committed by the World Bank and the Inter -American Development Bank until June.
Yetboth income from the ‘repo’ and those from multilateral organisms have a limit imposed by the IMF in the calculation of the reserves that Argentina must accumulate to meet the goal.
On that train, the government too will resort to the issuance of a debt title in pesos that can be acquired with dollars: This is Bonte 2030, exclusive to foreign funds, which will be placed this Wednesday.
To a measure that paved the way for this operationlast week the Central Bank enabled non -residents to participate in tendor tenders in the domestic market directly with dollars, Instead of having to sell them in the change market to buy debt titles with Argentine pesos. This opened the way to the launch of Bonte 2030, which announced the Ministry of Finance.
“Our expectation is that the goal will not be met, but anyway the IMF will grant a ‘waiver’ (dispensation) and will disburse the US $ 2,000 million corresponding to the first review,” LCG said.
The agreement with the IMF includes total loans for US $ 20,000 million, of which the agency already disbursed 12,000 million.
Source: Ambito
