“The average inflation of the last four weeks was 4.7%. Based on our survey, 15% of the basket updated their prices, 3 pp below what was observed the previous week, but still one step above the average observed until last November (before the price freeze that motivated the elections) ”, they remarked.
For its part, according to the survey carried out by Eco Go, it was highlighted that during the first week of February there was a variation of 1.9% in food prices compared to the previous week. “With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 0.6% for the next three weeks of the month, the inflation of food consumed at home in February would reach 4.9% per month. It is possible that said variation is biased upwards due to having a survey of supermarkets and not contemplating nearby businesses”, they explained from the firm, adding that during this month “the contribution of seasonal prices, fruits and vegetables in this case, It will be affected by the weather situation.
With this scenario, it is estimated that headline inflation for February will once again approach 4%. It is that, according to the analysts, in addition to occasional increases in different regulated prices, inertia will play a transcendental role. “February will have a floor of 4%. And in January we expect very important increases, for example: flour 14%, jam 13.7%, beer 13.2%, sugar 11.6%, mineral water 8.8%”, said Damián Di Pace, director of the consultancy Focus Market, who added: “In the last six months, we had never measured series with double-digit increases in any product. That’s what happened in January.”
“The truth is that it is likely that inflation will remain high in the next two years: the exchange rate will play a limited role as a nominal anchor and tariff adjustments will be recurrent, in order to gradually reduce their weight in the budget” , analyzed in this regard from the Institute of Labor and Economy (ITE) of the Germán Abdala Foundation, and added: “Inertia is the component that dominates the evolution of prices from month to month, and the only way to break it is with a consistent monetary and fiscal policy over time.
January
Beyond the forecasts, the official inflation data for the first month of the year will be released today. It is estimated that the increase in the CPI will be between 3.8% (same figure as in December) and 4%. For example, both for the consultants Eco Go, Ecolatina and Analytica, the increase in retail prices was 3.8%. For Equilibra, meanwhile, it stood at 4%. The increases in clothing and footwear, housing and health were above the general indicator. The increases in prepaid, private education and rentals, plus a new strong jump in the price of food, affect the January CPI.
Source: Ambito
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