The inflation that the public perceives It is much higher than measuring the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). According to the last survey carried out by the Finance Research Center (CIF) of the Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) University, The consulted assume that prices rise at a rate greater than 4% per month, compared to 2% reported by the agency.
The traditional survey that is usually taken as a market reference, Includes a question in which the participant is consulted what is the inflation that estimates 30 daysin addition to the 12 -month estimate.
“Since May 2023 we incorporated a new question about the expected monthly inflation for the next 30 days. This question has a higher answer rate than annual inflation, which suggests that in a context of high uncertainty it is probably easier to answer what he believes will happen in a month. ”Explains the private report.
The UTDT maintains about it “The average decreased from 4.55% in April to 4.23% this month, while the median remained by 3%.”
While the study does not mention it, it is warned by different consultants that INDEC has to adjust the consumption basket and its different weightss, with which it measures the evolution of prices.
Analysts argue that That basket is outdated With patterns of consumption of middle class families more than 20 years ago when there were no certain type of consumption that are currently registered, such as the Internet.
Like sErvicios won ground inside the basket, they should weigh more (impact more) on inflation of what official surveys are showing it.
With the current basket the Indec measured a retail inflation of 2.8% in April, against 3.7% in March, which marks a clear disinflation path. For May, Consulting surveys give between 1.8% and 2%.
In the same way, the public’s perception is doing. In March, the UTDT measurement had been almost 5%, in February 4.48%and in January 4.25%.
What is the perception of annual inflation
The perceived inflation in May For the next 12 months it was an average of 38.8%, while the median (the value that is located in the middle of a series) did it by 30%.
“Both, the average and the median, are indicators of the center of the data, of what the typical surveyed reports, but the median is usually more insensitive to tendency changes, so it remains motionless in consecutive months and gives large but infrequent jumps.” The study indicates.
The same indicates that “The average, on the contrary, is more sensitive to temporary variation in the answers and tends to move every month.”
Annual inflation by regions
The survey indicates that for lThe inhabitants of the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires The IPC at 12 months would be 42.1% (with a decrease of 2.4 points), Greater Buenos Aires, 40.8% (-2,3) and the interior, 37.3% (-2.5 points).
Source: Ambito
