Traffic
Why consider many people to be cheap fuel – rightly so?
Is it cheap or expensive at the moment? Both! Ultimately, it depends on the perspective – and a psychological effect.
Fueling is currently as cheap as it has not been in a long time. Fueling is much more expensive than five or ten years ago. Both sentences are true. Just what is the fuel now – expensive or cheap? The answer is not easy, it depends on the perspective and, last but not least, is determined by habituation and felt truth. A approach:
In May, the liter of Super E10 cost EUR 1.68 per liter in the nationwide month average according to data from the ADAC. Diesel cost 1.56 euros. This is less than on average in 2024 – and significantly less than in the years of 2023 and especially 2022, which were expensive in the Ukraine War, when both fuels temporarily cost more than two euros per liter.
So is fuel cheap? Not necessarily, because in 2020 the price for one liter of diesel fell below one euro in the meantime. At that time, both fuels were more than 40 cents cheaper than now in May. Prices as they are currently at the petrol stations would have been close to the autumn 2021 or even over the all -time highs at the time, and from 2010 to 2019 the fuel prices were more than 20 cents lower than last.
But is this comparison at all? Not necessarily, because he ignores inflation. After all, cars, bread or a visit to the restaurant are also more expensive today than in the past decade. If you have calculated the fuel prices since 2000 analogously to the general price increase, which was more than 60 percent over the full period of time, the picture looks different and the current fuel prices end up in midfield: According to this calculation, 12 of the past 25 years would have been more expensive than at the moment at petrol 18.
Why is that and how do the fuel prices come about?
In order to understand why the prices for fuel – unlike for many other goods – fluctuate heavily and always decrease, you have to look at their composition. There are roughly three blocks: oil price, tax and levies as well as processing and sales.
The oil price is particularly responsible for the fluctuations, which in the past five years alone has been between the equivalent of well over 100 euros and less than 40 euros per barrel (159 liters). How high the proportion of the oil price on the liter of the liter can only be rolled over because oil is created from oil. If you only go to the volume as an approximation, you get 36 cents for values in the dimension of the current oil price.
The proportion of the state is much higher – specifically energy tax, VAT and CO2 tax. Together with around 105 cents at Super and 86 cents at Diesel, they make up the biggest chunk. More than half of it is energy tax and has been constant since 2003 – apart from the time of the 2022 fuel price brake. This dampens price changes in the fuel. VAT hardly plays a role in price development. The CO2 price has only been playing a role for several years and it is increasing. With 13 cents at petrol and almost 15 cents at Diesel, however, it is still manageable.
The rest of the price no longer applies to processing, sales and the profits of the mineral oil companies. There are no clear numbers here, but it would be expected that the costs will increase here because wages, energy, transport and the like will also become more expensive. This item is also smaller compared to taxes and levies.
“I would not say that fuel is currently cheap,” says Christian Laberer, fuel market expert at ADAC. “At the moment we are heading for the fact that the fourth most of the fuel in 2025 will become of all times. If you incorporate inflation, it no longer looks quite as dramatic, but there is still a bit of room for the price-especially with margins in wholesale and refineries.
But why does the price still feel cheap for some?
Laberer sees getting used to the work here. He warned of this even at times much higher prices. Some people take the current prices as relatively cheap, “because we did not see a lot of more dramatic prices,” he analyzes a lot of more dramatic prices. “You get used to the new level over time and are almost relieved if it only costs 1.70 per liter instead of two euros. It is how you get out of the cold into a cool room: it also feels warm in comparison.
dpa
Source: Stern
