He Government suffered a strong setback with May tax collectionaccording to some data from the Ministry of Economy. In the month that ends, the income of the tax to the Profits and value added tax (VAT), The two pillars of the revenue of the Treasury, They dropped almost 30 % year -on -year.
The contraction is due to the High comparison base that had remained May 2024. In that month there was an unusual income as a product of the devaluation of the peso at the beginning of the management of Javier Milei that was carried out in December 2023. Like companies They had dollarized wallets, They registered huge profits for the difference in change. That was reflected in the income tax of the companies that are paid in the fifth month.
The official data will be known this Monday when Lto Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA) disseminate the collection forms of the fifth month of the year.
The impact of a joint fall In the collection of the profits and VAT of such size, it will be felt in the result of the non -financial national public sector. It is likely that the government has not been able to maintain, at least the financial surplus.
In terms nominal gain collection was practically equal to that of the year Past, but with an inflation of 44% after the period, the real loss was of the order of 39%, which would imply a fall of just under $ 1 billion.
As in April the government had already begun to make cuts again of the order of 6% interannual nominal, after three months of spending growth, It is assumed that in the fifth month the “chainsaw” has been deepened to counterperse the decrease of resources that was foreseen anyway.
The data arise from comparing the Tax co -participation shipments to the provinces. “In May Total transfers fell more than 23%. In May 2025, the National Government sent the consolidated provinces. $ 5.56 billion for co -participation, special laws and compensation, compared to $ 5,032 billion sent for the same period of the previous year, ”said the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf). In a report the entity argues that “a nominal variation of 10.6%” was observed and it states that “discounting the inflationary process of the period, this would translate into a real decrease of 23.3%.”
“For its part, co -participation, that is, the less complementary laws and compensation transfers, 26.3% real would have fallen,” explains the report.
The Iaraf notes that “this decrease in May’s net co -participation would be explained mainly by the Mto the performance of the collection of the income tax (-41% real year) and the decrease in VAT collection (-1.1% real interannual)“The report warns that”Together the collection of VAT and profits would have registered a real year -on -year decrease of 27%”, POr what “later, in the accumulated of the first five months of the year of the sum of these taxes, the real interannual variation would have been practically nil.”
Despite this, the Iaraf states that “although the real collection of May 2025 would fall 41% compared to last year, if compared to that of the year 2023 a real increase of 7.4%would be recorded. ” “Then, if you take into account the average of the years 2016-2023, of $ 4.47 billion, the collection of May 2025 would be 4.7% higher,” says the study.
Bad VAT signal
He Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA) He warned by its side, on VAT behavior, which partly reflects internal consumption. “VAT collection was reduced 1% year -on -year in real terms,” says the strain.
In a report he explains that “in four of the last five months, three exhibited a reduction, explained by an erratic behavior of economic activity and consumption.”
“In 2023 practically every month had exhibited increases in real terms while eN 2024 The collection fell into eight of the twelve months ”, Remember the work.
The strain indicates that “In the first month of 2025, the retraction was explained by a high comparison base Since in January 2024, VAT co -participation transfers increased 14.9% driven by the substantive increase in customs VAT within the framework of the mega devaluation. ”
“In February and March the interannual comparison showed an increase attributable to the improvement of the level of economic activity. However, In April and May, VAT collection was retracted, despite comparing with months of collapse (In April 2024, 8.1% were cut and in May 18.3%), ”the study warns.
Other co -participible taxes that rose
Meanwhile, the consultant Politikon Chaco He stressed that beyond profits and VAT that had negative behaviors. Other co -participated dropped 5% real while internal taxes presented expansion of 9.6%.-The increases in the personal property tax (6.1%), Liquid fuel tax (51.4%), electrical energy regime (238.7%) and monotax (128.2%), are highlighted.
Source: Ambito
