The government specified last week a placement of the Bontes 2030 for US $ 1 billion, within the framework of a strategy aimed at strengthening Net International Reservations (RIN). However, this play revived a concern in the City: In what scenarios do the goals agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be reviewed or flexible?
Meanwhile, the economic team Accelerates efforts to close a new repo agreement And evaluates to launch a new debt placement, although President Javier Milei ensures that the goal with the IMF “is fulfilled.” According to private estimates, They would still have to accumulate about US $ 3,600 million in just 15 days to achieve the objective committed to the multilateral body.
In the last hours, a report that began to circulate at the City lit a new question regarding the conditions under which the accumulation goals of reserves imposed by the IMF could be modified within the framework of the current agreement. The document, referring to the recent placement of Bontes, indicates that “The first US $ 1.5 billion placed with private abroad adjust the goal up,” But he warns that “only in future emissions, if that threshold is exceeded, the surplus can be counted as additional to the reserves.”
Within that framework, various sources consulted by Scope They considered that Goal adjuster It is for the issuance of debt in foreign currency and that, in this case, it is a Bonus in pesos integrated in dollarsand that, therefore Does not adjust the rhine up.
“Reading the EFF agreed with the IMF, The net reserves goal fits up if there is borrowing in foreign currencybut The Bonte is a bonus in pesos. Therefore, I understand that Bonte placement shortens the distance against the net reserves goal. Instead, this is not in the case of Rest since the First US $ 1,500 million They would translate into a goal adjustment. In other words, The rests would shorten the distance against the goal only if they exceed US $ 1,500 million“He told this medium, the economist Balbiani Tobias of Facimex.
It should be noted that although there is already talk of an extension of a month in the review of the country’s agreement with the IMF, so that the government has more time to comply with the goal of accumulation of reserves, From Economy they are still looking for a strategy to approach as much as possible without having to resort to buy currencies in the Mulc.
“On the one hand, and betting on a country’s fall, from the government they trust to specify A repo with international banks for a total of US $ 2,000 million. On the other, they do not rule out a new issuance of Bonte for US $ 1,000 millionalthough in this case with a lower rate than the one set in the placement last week (29%), “he explained Ignacio MoralesChief Investments officer, from Wise Capital.
IMF goal: how close it is to comply with the government
According to data provided by LCGtwo weeks after the “Deadline” for the first review of the agreement, stipulated for June 13), The reservation goal still looks “very difficult” to meet.
This is how the “account” did this consultant: “With The US $1 billion of Bonte 2030 that will enter this week, the US $ 2 billion to be added for the repo of the banks announced in their opportunity (only US $ 500 million will count for the goal), they would subtract accumulate US $ 3,600 million in just 15 days“
“The placement of the 2030 Bonte and the `Multchón ‘dollars seem to be strategies to show at least the intention to advance in the fulfillment of the commitments, such that it enables a` waiver` on the part of the background. The Government shows that the relevant goal is the end of the year and that in the months that the gap can be covered (they would subtract $ S15.2 billion), but anyway It does not seem to be the best to start asking for forgiveness in the first review of the new program“They expanded from LCG.
For its part, from Facimex They also made their calculation: “With the placement of the Ty30 we estimate that The distance between net reserves according to the methodology of the agreement with the IMF and the goal of the second quarter of this year will be reduced by approximately S5,000 million. While it is a considerable difference, it will continue to be reduced to the extent that there are new Bontes and/or if the BCRA reaches rest (for more than US $ 1,500 million) with international banks, as happened in January. “
Source: Ambito
