With the official dollar rising below 2% and inflation in recoil, fixed deadlines offer positive real yields. Market projections point to a convergence between exchange rate, prices and fees.
In a context of greater exchange and inflation stability in deceleration, the market begins to see signs of convergence between three key variables: the official exchange ratethe Price rise and the yield of investments in pesos. Therefore, specialists analyze: Does it should bet on dollar or al Fixed term?
During May, the Wholesale dollar He went up alone 1.5%in line with the controlled rhythm of the “Crawling Peg” applied by the Central Bank. However, in the last week of the month the ticket hit a 4.8% jumpaccompanied by a strong increase in futures contracts and financial dollars, which lit some alarms.
In contrast, the inflation It would have been one of the lowest since the leaving of the stocks, with private estimates that place it around the 2% monthlywith some incidence of seasonal factors (low in vegetables) and regulated prices (mainly combustible).
Is the fixed deadline convenient today?
In this scenario of apparent calm, the traditional fixed deadlines They captured the attention of the savers. Currently, the main banks offer a annual nominal rate (TNA) close to 30%which translates into a monthly performance of 2.5%.
This means that, at least in June, deposits in pesos They could beat both projected inflation and expected devaluation rhythmif the base scenario is fulfilled.
According to the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank:
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He Official dollar It would increase alone 0.7% in June, and 2% monthly on average during the third quarter.
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The inflation would be the 2.2% in Junealthough some analysts believe that the next REM could adjust that figure down.
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He Expected Performance of instruments in pesosas fixed deadlines, it would remain above 2.3% monthly, exceeding the other two variables.
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Damián Vlassich, an investment strategist in investing online, told the scope that “the market seems to have found a short -term balancewhile the post-such inflationary pressure was dissipating and the crawling PEG shows no surprises. “In addition, he stressed that” the dollar futures project an in-line devaluation with inflation during the coming months, which keeps the expectations of a fire type shooting. “
The Bonds with CER adjustmentmeanwhile, reflect a implicit average inflation of 1.5% monthly Even the elections, which reinforces the optimism of investors in short -term weights.
If the current balance is maintained, the Fixed term is positioned again as an attractive option For conservative savers, at least for those who seek to beat inflation and the official dollar in the short term. However, Electoral political risks They could quickly alter the stage.
Source: Ambito
