In Greater Buenos Aires, large jumps stood out in Round tomato (+82.2%), Lettuce (+51.1%), Lemon (+30.2%), Orange (+15.2%) and Potato (+14 ,two%).
The time of year also explained much of the performance in Restaurants and hotels, where prices rose 5.7%, a figure very similar to that of December. This item was influenced by Previaje, a program that promoted consumption and the reactivation of tourism, a sector hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In this framework, the price category “Seasonals” recorded a sharp acceleration, from 3.7% to 9%. “It is estimated that the high temperatures that the country suffered in the second week of the month had an impact on Seasonals, and that will surely strongly boost the cost of basic food baskets, a fact that INDEC will announce soon,” the chief economist of INDEC told Ámbito. CREEBBA, Gonzalo Seed.
Meanwhile, the category “regulated” exhibited an advance of 2.8% (against 1.7% in December), driven by authorized rises in prepaid and telephone and internet services.
Precisely this last question caused divisions such as Communication Y Health had increases above the average, of 7.5% and 4.1%, respectively.
On the other hand, the inflation rateCore”which excludes seasonal factors and prices regulated by the Government, fell from 4.4% monthly to 3.3%.
From the Ministry of Economy they maintained that this decrease was due to the “stability of Meat and derivatives after the increases in December, together with the slowdown of other items”, such as clothing and footwearor Transport.
Based on these numbers, inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, since in December it had gone from 2.5% to 3.8%. In annual terms, prices climbed 50.7%just below the previous record (50.9%).
Beyond seasonal issues, Semilla expressed concern about the high level of inflation dynamics, taking into account that many activities are “calm” in January.
Nadin Arganarazdirector of the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF), remarked that the annualized inflation for this month would give 58.3%, and warned that in four of the five previous years (except in 2021) the inflation of the calendar year ended up being higher to the January annualized.
“The analysis is merely descriptive, and a specific inference for this year 2022 is not possible. However, the evidence confirms that the drop in inflation is one of the great social and economic challenges of this year,” the economist clarified.
The median estimates of the consultants and financial entities that participated in the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) had thrown an expected inflation of 3.8% for the first month of the year. Likewise, for the accumulated of 2022 the private sector projects an average price increase of 55%.
The expectations are based on the fact that, in addition to the inflationary inertia that already has a very high floor in the country, there are possible adjustments in relative prices that could block the path of disinflation.
On the one hand, the Central Bank (BCRA) it has already begun to adjust the rate of devaluation upwards; The official exchange rate has just recorded its highest weekly rise in almost a year and is already advancing at an annualized rate of more than 40%.
In parallel, in March there would be a 20% increase in public service rates. However, within the framework of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is pressure for more corrections, with the aim of reducing the weight of subsidies on GDP and shrinking the fiscal deficit without affecting the poorest sectors. low income.
Regarding the agreement with the IMF, Semilla expressed that it can have a positive effect in calming expectations but at the same time it can boost the Regulated category.
In addition, in this first quarter strong increases are expected in items such as education and clothing due to the start of classes and the change of season, respectively.
Source: Ambito
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