Last Thursday, professionals from the different Peronist tribes at the headquarters of Matheu 130. The discussion revolved around economic guidelines that the PJ should incorporate in case of resuming the government in 2027. The debate could not be starred by Fernández de Kirchner, who announced in a report with C5N that will attend the next appointment which will organize the deputy from Salta.
The debt with the IMF and a negotiation based on the “quota”
Then, regarding the debate on the content of a Peronist economic program, the former vice president made reference to the debt that Argentina has with the IMF and your need to change the terms and conditions of repayment.
“One of the points to explore in a future negotiation with the IMF, which It does not happen to say that we are not going to paybut to renegotiate and Receive what corresponds to Argentina for its quota in the Monetary Fund”He said during the interview.
What is the quota-critical relationship with the IMF?
As much as there are still details about the approach of the president of the PJ, it is necessary to put in context the credit relationship of the country with the fund as a privileged creditor.
According to the definition that is on the background page, the quotas They are the fundamental components of the FMI financial and government structure. Among other uses, determine the maximum amount of loans that a member country can obtain from the body in normal access conditions.
According to a report from Quantum Financethe consultant of Daniel Marxthe IMF credit exposure to Argentina prior to the approval of more indebtedness It was 976% of Argentina’s fee. It is a percentage higher than that of Ukrainewhich, within the framework of the war, is the second debtor with a credit-quota relationship of 525% and of Egyptwho takes third position with 447%.
That ratio positioned the country as main debtor of the IMF, concentrating the 37% of the total loans granted from the organism.
However, the Government National resorted to greater indebtednessunder the commitment that the Treasure Recomprehe INTRANSFERIBLE LETTERS In the hands of Central Bank To rebuild your sheet balance. Thus, they agreed with the IMF a total amount of U $20,000 millionof which the 60% (US $ 12,000 million) was delivered in the First disbursement.
Héctor Torresformer IMF official, explains that A loan is computed as access to exceptional financing Whenever the 200% of the quota in a year or 600% of the quota in the accumulated loan.
However, according to the agency’s own regulations, countries can access in situations exceptional to financing up to 435% of its quota.
Now, This first disbursement -Front Loading- elevates, according to Marx’s scope consultation, The credit ratio – 1263% fee. By the time the disbursements are completed, that percentage will rise to 1449%. Far from the maximum amount in cases of crisis.
In turn, they add 200 basic points for interests for exceeding the loan limit in normal conditions of access, at the time that number rises to 300 basic points if the credit remains exceptional for more than three years.
The objectives of the CFK approach
The debt with the agency becomes central to the discussion that seeks CFK doors inside the party. They mention it from their environment, while ensuring that the objective of the future candidate for legislator for the third electoral section From the province of Buenos Aires it is concrete: “Click”
In the Table of the Homeland they still expect more details about the proposal of Fernández de Kirchner. However, a leader is encouraged to a first comment and understands that “it is a political proposal with technical instruments.” “Basically, what was raised at the time of Alberto (Fernández) about how it had to be the way to negotiate with the IMF, and Do not close to the loan contractbecause if it does not have a solution, ”analyzes in dialogue with scope.
Is it viable to direct the negotiation in these terms? For the doctor In economics and author of “Chainsaw and confusion”, Mercedes d’Alessandroif the loans granted during the governments of Mauricio Macri and Javier Milei are added, “we are talking about a indebtedness with the background absolutely out of scale”
If the exceptional access scenario to financing is considered, in relation to the fee of Argentina, the maximum amount must have been U $ S18,296 millionbased on the IMF statute.
“What was lent to our country Triplica even that extreme limit. It is evident that this was not a technical decision, but an operation policywith an international guarantee that is not explained only by the rules of the fund, ”says D’Alessandro.
“Therefore, a proposal that was presented to former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was to negotiate separately the technical aspects of politicians. Personally, I believe that this strategy is viable, although it will not be simple: you have to exert pressure, build alliances, add forces inside and outside the country, This is not just an Argentine problem, there are many countries that face similar dilemmas”, Concludes the economist.
Debt, production, bimonnetarism and international context
Although CFK’s word is expected on this issue in the next meeting, the treatment of debt with the agency was also discussed last Thursday.
During the meeting, generated by the deputy and head of the Commission of Economy of the Justicialist Party, Emiliano Estradamore than 60 economists expressed their positions based on four axes:
- What contents and approaches should a New economic speech of Peronism that manages to challenge the new generations, the average and productive sectors, without losing Our historical identity?
- What role should the State fulfill, the Provincial and Municipal Governmentsuniversities, unions and SMEs in a Quinquenal Plan for Productive Development? How do we articulate it from the PJ?
- How should Argentina be positioned in front of New international geopolitical map And what should strategic alliances be to sustain a sovereign development project?
- What strategic sectors should the heart of a new national productive model be in a context of Technological Transformation, Bimonnetarism and Social Emergency?
An economist who participated in the meeting highlights that one of the most substantial messages was that of agree all parties what to deal with sensitive problems If they arrive at the government, so that “nobody chooses a group that does not consequently and has no self -criticism,” the source ironizes.
Source: Ambito
