The Central Bank published the ReM of May, in which 42 consultants, research centers and banks participated. They also adjusted the projections for the dollar.
Market gurus cut their inflation expectationsafter the last official data of INDEC and the recent private estimates, which indicate a new deceleration in price increases. They also adjusted their forecasts for the evolution of the dollar.
The Central Bank (BCRA) published on Thursday the Survey of market expectations (REM) May, corresponding to the projections surveyed between 28 and 30 of that month. According to the median calculations of the 42 consultants, research centers and banks that participated in the survey, May inflation will give 2.1%.
In the REM, the estimate for the month you just finished was 2.8%. However, over the days the private consumer price rates (CPI) began to register lower than expected price increases, largely due to Falls in fruits and vegetables due to climatic factorshe Hot effect comes oute increased increases in prices regulated by the Government.
Following, participants see that inflation will be 1.9% in June and by the end of the year it will approach 1.5% monthly. In this way, the forecasts indicate that the CPI an advance of 28.6% would accumulate in 20253.2 percentage points (pp) less than what was expected in the April report.
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What does the market expect for the rest of the economy variables?
In parallel, the private sector also put Cold cloths to your devaluation expectations For what is left of the year. It happens in a context in which the official exchange rate has been throwing movements bounded in the spot, something below the center of the flotation bands, and when the BCRA intervention in futures contracts appears.
In tune with what was “price” in A3 (former Rofex), REM participants They estimated an increase in the wholesale dollar of 1.8%, on monthly average, for the second semester. By the end of the year they await a currency at $ 1,300, much lower than the $ 1,356 that is agreed in the futures, although this has to do with the last week of May (when the central made the survey), the “green ticket” hit an important rebound.
As for economic activity, the market predicted a slowdown in the growth rate for the second quarter, although for all 2025 they foresee a 5.2% increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(0.1 pp more of increase with respect to the previous REM).
In addition, participants They kept their unemployment estimates at 6.5% By the end of the year and an annual nominal 27.1% interest rate (equivalent to a 2.2% monthly ratesomething higher in relation to what is expected of inflation and increase in the dollar).
Source: Ambito
