The Argentine economy advances towards a Macroeconomic reorganization which brought encouraging signs: inflation yields, bank credit returns and the financial system begins to show dynamism. However, under that rebound, the Business Balances show a growing fragility in some sectors. According to a report from First Capital Groupbank credit to the private sector It grew 140% in dollars in the first quarter of 2025 —100% in real terms – but that recovery is accompanied by a worrying leap of leverage and greater risk of breach by some companies.
The first capital survey in the 250 most active companies of the Argentine banking system reveals a generalized deterioration in the coverage ratios, a fall of margins in both exporting and industrial and consumption sectors, and a concentration of indebtedness in the short term. In other words: companies are more indebted, with less capacity to face their commitments.
“The financing returned, but the operational context is more fragile. Many companies are taking debt to sustain flow rather than to grow, and that requires a very precise administration,” he warns Miguel Ángel ArrigoniParty of First Capital Group.
Credit grows, but also the risk
In March, credit to the private sector reached 8.3% of GDPdouble its recent minimum, and the highest level of recent years. However, the impulse is not enough to compensate for financial stress. While the irregularity rate of the portfolio remains low (2%), charges for uncollectibility increased to 4.7% per year And rejected checks exceeded the average of 2024, an early alert sign in the payment chain.
Companies face a combination of adverse factors: lower productivity, growing costs in dollars, revenues and difficulties in transferring prices. The export sectors, meanwhile, operate with a most appreciated real exchange ratewhich erodes even more his margins.
Red America: more defaults and restructuring
The trend transcends borders. In USAthe presentations under Chapter 11 reached their highest level in eight years, with an year -on -year jump of 50%. In Brazilrequests for judicial recovery rose 20% between 2022 and 2023, especially affecting industrial SMEs.
In Argentinathe number of preventive competitions did not grow abruptly, but analysts warn that Private restructuring grow: discreet agreements with banks, suppliers and funds, which seek to avoid the reputational consequences of a public default.
“Restructure debt is not a sign of weakness, but a strategy to sustain the operation. The one that is late, loses margin of maneuver and credibility,” Arrigoni summarized.
Liabilities management, key to survive
According to specialists, the Timing in Liabilities Administration It became as crucial as the capital itself. There are three clear stages:
-
Reperfilation (Up to 1 year before expiration): Allows agreements with greater flexibility.
-
Restructuring (Six months after expiration): It forces to redesign without margin for errors.
-
Default (After breach): It entails high legal and reputational costs.
In this new regime, The financing became indispensable but also more selective. The fall of the Leliqs enabled a greater flow of bank loans, and instruments such as backed checks, trusts, stock exchange and union loans grew. However, the misuse of some of them, such as the stock market, resulted in defaults that today limit their deployment.
The new financial environment imposes different rules. Inflation no longer acts as a “liquefter” of debt; Each point of real rate weighs. Indexed structures face barefoot between income and payments, and some credits born in a context of artificially low rates today face a Risk repricing.
Internal demand also adjusts: with beaten real salaries and lower Pass-Through of price, many mass consumption companies fail to sustain their prices compared to dollars.
In parallel, the International volatility It imposes greater demands: investors and banks evaluate more rigorously, especially in short -term loans. “Successful restructuring combine legal creativity, financial muscle and a lot of timing. The one who waits for the last moment, usually pays more expensive”, Concludes Arrigoni.
Source: Ambito
