Waiting for the official data of Inflation of INDEC, which will be announced next Thursday, June 13, different consultants assured that the item of food and drinksone of the most impact when calculating the price rise in Argentina, showed a significant deceleration in May that could mark a change of tendency in the general dynamics of prices.
Cprivate onsultors agreed that the inflation of the fifth month of the year would have remained for below 2%, largely due to the brake – and even setback – in the values of Key Basic Basket Products. In fact, the survey of Market expectations (REM) published by the Central Bank indicated that prices 2.1% rose in May, and that in June inflation would pierce the threshold of 2% for the first time in five years.
The expectation of the food and drinks item
According to LCGwhich performs a weekly monitoring of the item “Food and drinks”, Prices grew just 0.2% in the fourth week of May, after having risen 2.1% the previous week. The most relevant data was the accumulated result: The monthly average of the last four weeks threw an increase of only 0.1%.
Rubber analysis showed significant falls in vegetables (-6.8%), meals ready to carry (-1.3%), Meat (-0.6%), fruits (-0.4%) and dairy products and eggs (-0.2%). On the contrary, drinks and infusions recorded a rise in 5.2% during the month.
For its part, the consulting firm Econviews too registered moderate inflation in the food and drinks category in Greater Buenos Aires. In the fourth week of May, The prices of its basket increased 0.9%while the accumulated of the last four weeks It had a variation of just 0.5%. Within that set, the only significant increase was that of “greengrocer”, with an average rise of 4.8%, suggesting that the rest of the products had slight or even low increases.
For its part, Eco Go estimated a general inflation close to 2% in May. Despite specific rises, such as the 7% increase in the AMBA collective ticket and the 0.2% adjustment in the price of gasoline, the monthly data was moderate mainly by the low inflation in food, which ended up being milder than the projected initially.
LCG monitoring also contributed data at the beginning of June. During the first week of the month, No increases in food and drink prices were recorded. In that period, the average inflation of the last four weeks remained at 0.1%still influenced by the fall of the second week. The variation between tips was 0.7%.
Since June 1, it was recorded a strong decline in drinks and infusions for the home (-5.4%), although this fall had its counterpart for Increases in meat (1.4%) and dairy products and eggs (1.2%).
The market improved inflation expectations: it provides that it will drill 2% since June and be less than 30% in 2025
Market gurus cut their inflation expectationsafter the last official data of INDEC and the recent private estimates, which indicate a new deceleration in price increases. They also adjusted downwards its forecasts for the evolution of the dollar.
The Central Bank (BCRA) published on Thursday the Survey of market expectations (REM) May, which corresponds to the projections surveyed between the 28 and 30 of that month. According to the median calculations of the 42 consultants, research centers and banks that participated in the survey, May inflation will give 2.1%.
Source: Ambito
