While the government of Javier Milei holds its controlled devaluations policy, the main market analysts adjusted their projections for the Official dollarand the inflation. The most accurate group of consultants in Survey of market expectations (REM) It provides for a change rate of $ 1,290.6 by the end of the year and an inflation that would remain on low. The new estimates confirm the exchange stability scenario, but also anticipate challenges in employment and economic activity.
The Central Bank published the last Survey of market expectations (REM) with data collected between May 28 and 30. There is the ranking of the 10 best forecasting —An known as the “Top 10” – which stands out for having been the most precise in anticipating inflation in previous months. This time, its projections mark a slight downward correction in the expected exchange rate, together with a reduction in inflation estimates and interest rates.
What dollar the top 10 of the REM expected
The average of the 10 most successful consultants foresee that the Official dollar reaches $ 1,290.6 in December 2025a slightly lower than the median general of all the participants of the REM, which places it in $ 1,300.
In the previous months, moderate increases are also expected:
-
June: $ 1,164.8
-
July: $ 1,175.7
-
August: $ 1,194.1
-
November: $ 1,272
This marks a continuity in the strategy of daily microdevaluations implemented by the economic team since the end of 2023. By May 2026, the Top 10 projects a dollar of $ 1,359.3compared to $ 1,380.5 of the total average, which implies a year -on -year variation of 27.4%some points below the previous REM.
Inflation: Mild low -expected
The most sensitive data for the Argentine economy also shows a downward trend. For May 2025the top 10 estimated a monthly inflation of the 2%just below the 2.1% of the general consensus. As of June, forecasts go down even more:
By December 2025, the General CPI would accumulate a 27.3% riseaccording to Top 10, and 26.5% according to the median of the REM, which represents a Important slowdown compared to 2024 levels. Regarding the nucleus inflationthe annual accumulated estimate is 29.8%also in line with a moderation.
Dollar Blue Cueva
Depositphotos
The market expects less rates and inflation, but more unemployment
The projections also included other key indicators. For the Annual Nominal Interest Rate (TAMAR)the top 10 forecasts a decrease to the 26.85% In December 2025, against 27.15% of the general average. This would imply lower performance for fixed deadlinesin line with the fall of inflation.
As for the employmentthe top 10 estimates a rate of 6.4% unemployment For the fourth quarter of this year, slightly above the 6.2% that foresees the median of the REM. During the rest of the year, consultants expect unemployment to range between 6.6% and 6.9%sign that the recovery of the labor market will be slower than that of macroeconomy.
Fiscal surplus and rising exports
The report also reflects expectations aligned with the fiscal course of the government. He Primary fiscal result of the non -financial public sector is projected in U $ S14.2 billion surplus According to the top 10, while the rest of the analysts places it in US $ 13.4 billion. No participant foresees a deficit.
In foreign trade, projections are similar between both groups:
Which would imply a Robust commercial surplusalthough without significant jumps over the previous year.
What do these projections imply for Argentines
With a official dollar that rises below inflationthe perception of a backward exchange rate is consolidated, which could make the competitiveness of the export sector difficult if this dynamic is prolonged. At the same time, the expected fall in inflation Improves purchasing power in real terms, although the labor market still shows clear signs of sustained recovery.
The continuity of the fiscal balance and the low monetary issuance – central banners of the economic program of Javier Milei – seem to generate confidence in private sector analysts, but there are still doubts about the social impact and political sustainability of the adjustment.
Source: Ambito
