Inflation in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) slowed 1.6% in Maywhich is why analysts estimate that the national consumer price index (CPI) can also pierce 2%. The decrease in price increases was fundamentally explained by falls in the price of vegetables, fuels, rates and tour packages, the latter within the frame of the Hot Sale.
As reported on Monday by the CABA Statistics and Census Institute, it was the lower monthly variation since 2020when the economy was going through the worst moment of the Covid-19 Pandemia. In April prices had increased 2.3%.
CABA inflation: Seasonal factors explained a good part of the May deceleration
The survey data showed that the reduction was a consequence of a large part of a 3.6% drop in the prices of the “seasonal” category. This was mainly due to the casualties in the values of air tickets, in the housing rates in hotels and in the prices of vegetables and tour packages.
In addition, The prices regulated by the government climbed 1.7%just above the general CPI. While the increases in prepaid and fees of private schools rose this category, the falls in fuels and gas rates took pressure.
Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors, expressed in dialogue with the scope that the decrease in gas rates may have been a consequence of “from May, from May, With the new tariff box, what until April was the highest category was unfolded, generating savings for one of those blocks“
The rest of the products, which represent a “proxy” of the nucleus inflation of Indec, averaged an increase in 2.1%. Even so, 0.8 percentage points of the previous month were slowed.
How much did food uploaded and what products added greater pressure to the general CPI?
The division of Foodwhich is the one with the highest incidence in the CPI, contributed an increase in the 1.2%. The aforementioned seasonal fall in vegetables traced down, while the main increases were seen in bread and cereals (+2.1%), and dairy (+2.1%).
In parallel, the division that most pressed to the general index was housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, with a 2.1%rise. The update in rentals It was one of the factors that explained the most.
Behind, in incidence, the division of information and communication followed, with an average increase of 3.8%, mostly generated by the Settings in mobile phone services and communicated communication.
According to Hernán LetcherDirector of the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA), the combo of regulated prices, salary and exchange rate, added to the loss of gasoline, reflect that Inflation deceleration is explained more by the dynamics of the key components that determine coststhat by a monetary phenomenon.
Will the national inflation pierce 2% in May?
With these numbers, CABA inflation accumulated a 12.9% In the first five months of 2025. Also, in year -on -year prices raised a 48.3%.
“From an analysis of the weights of INDEC and the differential that has been giving between this calculation and the observed, National inflation should be in the 1.7%”area”the economist Alejandro Kowalczuk predicted.
In the same tune, Tiscornia said that CABA’s data “at least marks you than May Ind inflation should be less than April.” “It should be close to that 1.6%“He said.
“Repeating the city’s data, It gives us the national CPI would be 1.2%/1.3%, although in the last two or three months it was not fulfilled exactly, so it would take it with tweezers“said Rocío Bisang, an eco -analyst.
“In fact, since February the inflation published by Indec overlook that of the capital, so It would not be uncommon to repeat and approach the consensus a little more, that it is somewhat closer to 2% than 1%“He deepened.
Source: Ambito
