He Finance team tries to close financial engineering that allows you to get the necessary dollars to comply with the goal of international reservations that promised before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the April agreement.
If the spirit of that understanding was for the Central Bank to buy sufficient dollars during the first half of the year in which by seasonality the liquid field most of the currencies, That will not be fulfilled. The team headed by Luis Caputo decided that the decline in inflation is priority of economic policy in electoral year and, therefore, withdrew the market entity to avoid pressing on the exchange rate and as a consequence increase the price level.
Economists understand that by loan would be the government in a position to fulfill the goal of Juneto which adds the possibility that the national treasure itself bought “in the middle of the band”, as it is said in the financial world, which means, above the $ 1000.
If so, the Treasury Palace would be going reverse with one of the promises that they will not intervene in the market Neither through the BCRA nor the Treasury.
Miracles Gismandi: “They have pesos to buy”
Milagros Gismandi, by Cohen Argentinaremember that “the economic team had previously said that Neither the central nor the treasure were going to acquire inside the band, But it could be, especially since some time ago it happened to him utilities, ”explained the economist who indicated that the government “It has the weights to buy.”
Gismandi, on the other hand, is more likely that The Ministry of Economy makes a second placement of Bonte 2030 “Since he had a good debut in the secondary market.” “It would be the main alternative,” he explained.
“The advantage you have is Well marks a price for the currency – that of the first placement was a dollar of $ 1,148 – is not purchase And then he does not press about demand, ”he said.
In fact, the DE dollars has a high demand, something that is demonstrated that although the field liquid exports the exchange rate does not fall. The problem would be that another strong plaintiff appears on prices.
Remember that in the first placement of the bonus “Linked weight” between international investors, The Treasury captured US $1 billion, but at a slightly higher rate than 29% when the market awaited at most 23%. That is why for the economist that resource has limits. “It is not sustainable,” he explained.
Cohen Argentina’s analyst added that “after the signing of the agreement the government made it quite clear that its main or its priority is inflation and maintain the exchange rate at bay ”.
Numbers formally within the goals
Thus, although the numbers in the middle of the year are inside the goals, it is possible that the IMF re -emphasizes the Argentine government that has to demonstrate that the model is capable of accumulating dollars without requested borrowing.
As indicated by the agreement, the government has to have added to reservations US $ 4,500 million in relation to the December balance. About US $ 2,000 million would be provided by international organizations with disbursements. The U $ 2,500 remaining would have to be purchases in the market or more loans, which is what Caputo is looking for.
Leonardo Anzalone, Director of Center for Policy and Economics Studies (CEPEC) considered that if the treasure intervened in the Single and Free Market (Mulc) buying above $ 1,000 “It would be very healthy.”
“If they have a fiscal surplus, it is to respond to the needs of the economic program itself And in this case I have the accumulation of reservations, ”he said. But for Anzalone the Government would already have US $ 3,000 million in the BCRA account and need other US $ 1 billion, which could arrive from repo.
Beyond the alternative that the Treasury Buy Dolla. It is what the former Argentine director before the IMF Héctor Torres calls “rented reserves.” The CEPEC director believes that, if the review is before the second half of June, before the payment of coupons of bonds that expire in July, Luis Caputo, will reach the goal.
Similarly, the economist Gabriel Caamaño said that if the treasure intervened in the middle of the band “it is a step in the right direction” which would demonstrate flexibility of the economic team to the different scenarios.
Source: Ambito
