For Tiscornia, the probability that “that Kirchnerism loses a lot of power in Congress ” In the next elections. However, he considered that, although he does well to the government in the elections, They won’t finish clearing The doubts because, he recalled, Macri won in the mid -term contest and was then defeated.
With this vision Timerman coincides. In his opinion, after the ruling on the former president “nothing transcendent will happen absolutely because Market concern goes through the success of this economic plan. ”
Martín Rapetti: “Political uncertainty is a great discouragement”
No one knows what will happen, what effects will have an eventual condemnation of Cristina. We do not know what the social climate will be and, Ergo, how it will impact political dynamics.
It is a fact of a lot of importance and we do not know how people will react, if there are going to be mobilizations, if in those mobilizations there may be conflicts, if there can be misfortunes. Or if, on the contrary, it is almost inadvertent.
We do not know how Peronism will act, beyond the Kirchner hard core. What are the Peronist governors going to do?
All of that is a great unknown. It may be that the market falls well, it may be that the first reaction is positive, but you have to see what the course of the days is.
A great discouraging factor of investments is, in my opinion, the great structural political uncertainty in Argentina.
Regardless of Javier Milei and freedom progressesthe big problem that Argentina has is the absence of two or three dominant forces that have nuances about the economy. There is a huge variancean economist would say, A great amplitude of visions About the economyon its operation.
So, For an investor it is very difficult to make a long -term investment that involves a lot of capital because he does not know how the government will be in four years.
Very different is the case of Peru where you can not know who the president of the Nation is because the one who matters is the president of the Central Bank.
Fausto Spotorno: “In the world there is no interest in risk assets”
The judicial resolution of Cristina Kirchner’s situation can mean a slight improvement for markets, but I don’t think Kirchnerism is the brake on investments. There is something that we are not looking good and is that The world is a much more complicated place than it used to be.
Today there is no demand or interest in taking risks and Argentina is still a risky place.
It is true that the improvement of the fiscal deficit naturally greatly decreases the risk of the State. Also that as the IMF remembered the risk of Argentina is reduced. And the elections, if they go well for the government, will help.
But all this In a global context of much risk and little demand for risky assets.
It would seem to run the arc. When you achieve fiscal balance they ask you for exit from the stocks and when you leave they demand that you accumulate reservations and win the elections.
Actually, what happens is that There is no interest in assets or Argentines, or any risk assetsbecause almost any asset in the world today is risky.
Camilo Tiscornia: “The elections will not end to clear the uncertainty “
Kirchnerism is seen, within the political spectrum, as the most risky faction for the economic world, especially financial, and for companies in general. And Cristina de Kirchner is the clearest representative of that faction (he was president twice and vice president).
So, If it will be out of the career for the legal issue, I believe that in principle the news could be welcomed by the markets. And, beyond her in particular, it would be a sign that the rules system works.
There may also be a negative cost, because we will have to see how it reacts. Most likely try to go on the side that they are proscribing it, or things like that, and this Perhaps you can stir the economic scenario.
As for the next elections, although the government did not have a spectacular result, It is very likely that Kirchnerism loses a lot of power in Congressa relevant fact, back, thinking that it is seen as the most complicated political part for investors.
It will also be important the result that Kirchnerism finally obtains in order to perceive whether they have the possibility of returning later or not.
Would an important triumph of the Government have finished all the fears of investors? I believe that maybe not, because we remember that in 2017 Mauricio Macri won and, nevertheless, in 2019 he lost the elections. I do not believe that the result of these elections is the solution to clear all kinds of uncertainties, but it seems to me that it would be a fairly important advance.
Javier Timerman: “Argentina needs a much lower country risk To achieve investments in the real sector
If the Court ratifies the conviction and Cristina ceases to be a candidate, The market is going to be happy, but absolutely nothing transcendent will happen because Market concern goes through the success of this economic plan and the time needed to order certain variables that have to do mainly with the accumulation of reserves and with the opening of the markets.
Today, Argentina needs A much lower country risk to achieve investments in the real sector that are not high risk.
Obviously, for these sectors that invest in countries such as Venezuela or the peripherals of the former Soviet Union, in areas such as oil and gas, it is different. But, in general it is a problem for real investment, both from Argentines and foreigners, that the country risk is quite high.
Even more thinking about what happened in 2019, when one of the most important events occurred in Argentine economic history. The market bet on a model that was defeated at the polls and The reaction was tragic, with many losses.
Now, the market already had very good news that in another context and with another story they would have had a much greater impact. As the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, that Argentina does not have deficits and the support of the United States and in particular of Scott Besent Opening the possibility of accessing the financing of the American Treasury.
They are much more important news than a conviction, or not, to Cristina. Howeverthe market is expectation and is waiting for time to pass.
The only thing that will make investments arrive will be that these policies are consolidated over time. And see what happens if these policies are not consolidated, if the government needs to have more inflation to accumulate reservations, how the political class would react, how social humor would respond, and so on.
The investor says today I have no trouble, so they can condemn Cristina, they can outlaw it and they will be happy, but it will not increase the investment. My opinion is that the investor wants time and not hurry.
Source: Ambito
