The Central Bank (BCRA) concluded the stage in which the rates policy functioned as an anchor of the deflation process, and will advance towards a scheme based on the control of monetary aggregates. Among the recent measures announced by the monetary authority, which aim to strengthen reservations, and consolidate the control of the amount of money in the economy, include: the repurchase of puts to banks, a loan with outside entities for US $ 2,000 million, monthly bond tenders in pesos signed in dollars, the elimination of the Lefis and an adjustment in the bank lace, among other provisions.
In this way, the BCRA will pass fully to A monetary aggregate scheme. Precisely the idea of the government is that Inflation control is no longer because of the fixation of interest rates, but through limiting the amount of money in circulation. Before the announcement of June 9, Minister Luis Caputo had already implemented measures oriented to the control of monetary aggregates: in July 2024 he promised to Eliminate all monetary issuance sources, including the purchase of dollars in the official marketcompensated with sales in the financial market to neutralize the issuance.
Specifically, in this case, it is the elimination of the Lefis the one that ended up burying the monetary policy of fees. These instruments are treasure letters that the Central Bank was responsible for managing and served to remunerate idle bank balances. It is worth remembering that Lefis They came to replace passive passes and Leliqs.
This implies that, without a reference rate, The rates become determined by the supply and demand of market liquiditywhich implies more volatility But also one more signal genuine Price
“The programmed expiration of the Lefis and their replacement by LECAPS marks a turning point in monetary policy. The Lefis fulfilled a transitory role by absorbing liquidity surpluses, but its administrative nature (with predetermined rates and without secondary market) He made them incompatible with a modern monetary scheme. Its consolidated elimination A regime where the interest rate will no longer be set by the BCRA, but will emerge endogenous according to the supply and demand conditions in the capital market“They explained from CEPEC.
Monetary aggregates: pro and cons of the deepening of the scheme
In talk with scope, Claudio Caprauloeconomist and director of ANALYTICSHe said that “at the beginning of phase 3 in mid -April the Central Bank said it went to a monetary regime based on monitoring the amount of money. Now there is a change in the form that will be carried out, predictable by the characteristics of the Lefi. Beyond the ads, you have to wait to see their instrumentation. “Despite this, he left some alerts about the plan presented by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoand the head of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili.
It is so Claudio Capraulo He stressed that, of the ads, “it seems to me the most relevant The external indebtedness program that is proposed, with Risk characteristics by not establishing a minimum period of permanence of financial investments from abroad“. This comes up to the decision of the Central Bank that eliminated the restriction of six months of permanence for non -resident investors that access the MLC by primary subscription or secondary market.
It should be noted that yesterday the Finance Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy announced that it will incorporate, in the schedule of Public title tenders for 2025the modality of direct subscription in dollars. This option will be available from this month for placements with deadlines greater than one year, with a monthly limit of US $1,000 millions. This will be both for resident, foreigners, in the latter case, in the latter without the minimum obligation.
For its part, from CEPECalso analyzed the pro and cons of this scheme. It is important to note that The Lefis stock reached $ 15,433.4 million (1.9% of GDP) in May of this year, representing 48% of the monetary base. “Now that amount must be issued in letters, taking pressure from the treasure. Countries that abandoned hybrid schemes (such as Türkiye in 2021) reduced their inflation in 18-24 months, but required sustained primary fiscal surplus (3%+ GDP)Argentina is on that path, “they detailed.
“Before phase 3, the control of monetary aggregates was governed by the criteria of a wide monetary base. That changed with the beginning of this phase and What is going to be controlled is the evolution of M2 according to criteria of the Central Bank that are still restrictive“He told this medium, Andrés Reschini de F2 Financial Solutions And he expanded: “The Lefis are going to stop existing, Central Bank will be redeemed to the treasure for short letters. In this way the banks will have to negotiate the liquidity to the market“
About the consequences, according to reschini, “The rates will be defined by the market, and banks will have to work more than banks”. The expert also mentioned a control alternative that the BCRA was kept. “The Central Bank does not stop keeping the letter of being able to intervene in the market, selling or buying these treasure letters, And that way It still has a high influence on the control of monetary aggregates and of course the rate. “
“A scheme of monetary aggregatesunderstanding that the implications are not yet clear, it would give the impression that The secondary issuance is going to be oriented to the monetary issuance, not only primary. I think he seeks to give him some liquidity to the system And with that new liquidity, perhaps loosen a little what is the exchange appreciation that we were seeing in the official market, “said the economist Eric PaniaguaPartner of Dracma Venture Capital Consulting, who also stressed that part of the subscription of the dollar bonds to pesos have been reformed so that The Central Bank can earn some reservations.
Finally, from the F2 DIARY REPORT FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS They concluded: “These guidelines that draw between BCRA and Mecon are A ratification of the strategy of obtaining reservations through the capital account while disinflation is prioritized as the main argument to obtain a victory in Octoberfrom when it will be easier for the government to carry out reforms that increase the level of trust and, therefore, of investment. “
Source: Ambito
