As part of a strategy of “sleeping” dollar –To force additional decline in inflation until the next elections of the month of September and October-, the government has launched an unpublished package of measures that also includes, also, Some definitions that are kept key. Strike point out that in all cases, and according to the scope, government decisions are based on Taylor-Made elements, that is, it was the investment funds themselves that reached their demands to inject short-term currencies.
The equation is simple: more and more dollars are needed to sustain the current account deficitwhile the execution of the Financial Front by the Central Bank (BCRA) does not enable the possibility of buying, those currencies, in the market, since it would generate bull pressure in the price.
With a rate of change in the $ 1,190 area, in the Casa Rosada they think that the backward dollar and the consequent price hibernation is an elementary asset if you want to play the next election. On that plane, permanent indebtedness appears as the factotum to cover the “pothole” of the coming months, at a rate of US $ 1 billion per week.
On the one hand, and as anticipated Scope, The Treasury Palace has presented this week its intention to close for today a repo (loan) between US $ 1,500 YU $ 2,000 million with a banks consortium.
On the other, he has just announced just a few hours ago, that the BCRA It will issue the 4 Bopreal series for a total amount of US $ 3,000 million. The tender will be by adhesion and is issued with semiannual payments of interest at the rate of 3% annual with a single amortization in October 2028. Linked to the latter, in the City they argue that, if the hard dollar curve is taken as reference, the hard dollar curve, the IRR of the new bonus should be around 10.5% which would imply a market price of the order of the US $ S80.
A package of measures to add reservations without pressing the exchange rate
To those instruments that are put into play from today, the Casa Rosada will add definitions that will go, now in more, the pre -established by President Javier Milei until just a few days ago. An example of this was the Elimination of the minimum term for non -resident investorssomething that has been resisted in the last hours by some analysts. Why did this decision reach? According to the broker of an investment fund based in London that will participate in the business, “because for the funds that can put a file, Argentina is today a three -month trade, no more.”
The fact to be taken into account – and that was asserted by the government – is that the BCRA will finally seek its dollar reserves – the political signal is clear in this regard – with the purpose of approach the goal that he asks, in a first stage, the IMF. To that reasoning he pushed the international agency in recent days, after Deputy Minister Daza was striving to generate financial investments from the United States without great success and under the conditions that governed until last week.
However, Daza – together with his friend, Secretary Scott Bessentt – managed to “run” the IMF review date that should be carried out this week, something that helped decompress the growing tension that had been generated in the government. However, the IMF rebuked and added the refusal to carry out the additional disbursement of US $ 2,000 million as established. Without revision of reservation goals there will be no disbursement, said the background.
What is modified in the exchange band from now
To do this, in addition to having postponed the review of the program with the agency’s staff, the government has defined inside doors that will only expect the dollar cite at the base of the exchange band to start buying currencies in the squarebut it will put into play other ways to strengthen the BCRA currency coffers, even if it is very short term.
That is to say, under the indirect pressure of the IMF, The government decided to release other ways to add dollars, reviewing its passive position with respect to the subject. On the one hand, the decision was reversed, on the other, the tool to do so was modified: instead of using the change market, a differentiated strategy was armed.
In that line, the minister Luis Caputo He went to the intersection of inconsistency proposals and argued that they exist, now, “Multiple ways to accumulate reservations”, A lifting shot to the IMF. For the official, one of the roads, is through the national treasure, using the weights from the fiscal surplus to buy dollars without the need to issue currency.” Far from having deficit, the treasure has surplus, a surplus that more or less is around the billion pesos per month, “he explained. In this way, they say in the government, the tax authority can intervene in the exchange market inflationary.
In addition to the repo with the international banks that would be closed today, it was also announced that it will be incorporated into the public title tenders for 2025, the direct subscription modality in dollars. This option will be available from this month for placations with deadlines greater than one year, with a monthly limit of US $ 1 billion. “The possibility of eventually can enter, in different tenders, so it is titles for more than a year, which can be subscribed in dollars, that is another way of accumulating reservations,” Caputo explained this time.
Source: Ambito
