The economist Juan Carlos de Pablo He gave his perspective on the latest measures of the economic team, the accumulation of reservations in the BCRA and the stability of the program in a year of legislative elections. It was in an exhibition for the planet company, which expressed about the flotation: “BRC reserves are not required to maintain the exchange rate.”
For De Pablo, there is a particular announcement that worries him: “They had enabled the transfers of sweet toe – that is, the short -term ones – and put a minimum permanence term of six months, which just eliminated. This means that probably They need reservations, but put an instability noise of short phenomenal term, ”he judged.
According to the economistthis flexibility will lead to intense journalistic coverage every time capitals enter or leave, “as if it were a football game.”
Juan Carlos de Pablo: His gaze on recent measures, reservations and economic direction
“I am not an expert, but I have to record this. The economic team is professional and, evidently, they are working on the battlefield,” said Paul. He also referred to the debate between economists and the government about whether it is necessary, or not, accumulate reservations in a flotation scheme, defended the position of the Executive.
“In flotation, the Central Bank reserves are not required to maintain the exchange rate. Flotation means: I go to the square with a chomba that says ‘I have pesos, I want dollars’ and I find a person who says ‘I have dollars, I want pesos’, “he exemplified.
And he added that “we agree, and until it falls to $ 1000 or rises to $ 1400, it is the supply and demand of the private sector, plus the treasure demanding dollars to pay the interests of the debt.”
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He argued that the official commitment is that risk ratingers improve the country’s note and, from there, some financial funds buy Argentine bonds. This would rise prices, the country risk would lower and increase the chances that debt holders renew.
“If Argentina does not get dollars to finance the renewal -because they are provided by a third or because the holders of titles voluntarily renew -, no one can think that we will pay the maturities of debt with local effort. MORALEJA: We will talk about default,” complete.
October legislative elections and Cristina Kirchner
On the other hand, he referred to Electoral context facing the legislative of October. In that line, he considers that together with the conviction to Cristina Kirchner, The economic program is not altered, which is summarized in fiscal equilibrium plus the chainsaw of Federico Sturzenegger. “I can’t assure you anything, but, if you have a good business opportunity, mandate,” hill.
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Dollar in the second semester: analysts rule out abrupt jumps and put the magnifying glass in the legislative
With the Official dollar Anchored around $ 1,200 and somewhat lower financial quotes, the market adjusts the zoom towards the second half of the year. The survey of market expectations (REM) that the BCRA – Tomido in the last week of May – projects a Rhythm of devaluation of 1.8 % monthly in the second semester and a wholesale exchange rate at $ 1,300 at the end of December.
The data contrasts with the future operated in A3 (former Rofex): for the same closure of 2025 the contracts are agreed around $ 1,356. This differential reflects, above all, the rebound that registered the currency in those days and the prudence of the market actors in the middle of the electoral semester.
Source: Ambito
