But nevertheless, This project will have a “section”, a kind of annex that, according to the sources, condenses a series of clarifications, very few additional to those that have already been known. The detail is that the Government will also include promises, paths, projections, even syllogisms and equations, all of them made up of good fiscal intentions, various adjustments in public accounts that will sound good in the eyes of the IMF, although without too many concrete goals.
The objective (of the Casa Rosada) could be twofold. On the one hand, in what is a controversial twist, a sector of the ruling party supposes that, without too many concrete data to defend, bearing in mind the randomness and uncertainty of the domestic context, the parliamentary discussion could flow on the surface, almost going through the two chambers with certain elegance, generating low uncertainty on the foreign exchange frontlittle volatility in the business world, and just a few injured in the verbal crossroads of politics, especially within the Front of All.
The other need, more unusual but no less relevant, would be to generate an important margin of subjectivity, a kind of wide range of alternatives, on which to give the next discussions with the IMF, the famous quarterly reviews, where the Geogieva´s boys they will come with the signed papers in hand, the “commitment” of Argentina for the next two years, which will be, attention, as was said, a cluster of good intentions, a kind of trail of promises.
If one wants, it could be called a “intention letter”, but not a final memorandum of understanding. Strictly speaking, the sources who spoke with this chronicler prefer to underline some observations noted in passing and silence others. For example, They point out that the proposal to be considered will say that the exchange rate will be tied to inflation, projected at around 40% by 2022 in the document, and that the exchange rate must be competitive in real terms. The calculation base, they say, will be the end of January 2022. This was an advance of this newspaper during the week.
Another point is the issue of economic growth and inflation. Sources maintain that the document indicates an estimated growth of between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2022. However, the projections for subsequent years included in the letter of intent could raise some questions, since the estimated (and intended) growth of the Casa Rosada, on average, per year, will be from 1.7% to 2.2% per year, that is, low growth. This projected “landing” in the activity -which will surely be in charge of conserving the dollars to accumulate in reserves and start paying- will be done, they maintain, at the same time, reducing inflation, in a gap that would go between 35 and 45 % approximately by the end of 2022. The promise that Guzmán will turn to Congress will say that, in his plans, there will be a commitment to reduce inflation by 5% per year with a “arrival” date in 2024.
The sources prefer to remain silent, for now, about some things, but what they do mention is that the document in question shows that the Government itself takes note and communicates the “uncertainties” of the contemplated scenario that, according to the Palacio de Hacienda, must be incorporated in real time in the discussions with the IMF, that is, that now cannot be taken into account. Brazil, the Federal Reserve, the drought, the subsidies, the international prices, can help or worsen things or, in any case, the revisions and, therefore, the signed commitments.
It will be seen later.
Source: Ambito
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