The wholesale prices They noted a 0.3% decrease in May, After a strong decline in the Imported (-4.1%), while nationals did not vary, according to the report of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). This is the first monthly deflation since 2020, in full pandemic, when the fall was 1.3%; although if this data is excluded, it is necessary to ride at 2008as he said María Castiglioni of C&T Consultants In dialogue with Scope.
In the accumulated of the year, the Wholesale internal price index (IPIM) It was located in the 7.4%while in the interannual it slowed down to 22.4%, minimum since 2017.
Within the “National Products”the divisions with the highest negative incidence in the IPIM were “Refined oil products” (-0.17%), “Agricultural products” (-0.10%) and “Basic metal products” (-0.06%); while the divisions with the highest positive incidence were “Food and drinks” (0.20%) and “Substances and Chemicals ” (0.09%).
He wholesale basic price index It also descended 0.3% dragged by the decline of the Importedin this case 4.2%. The Producer pricesfor their part, they fell 0.2% After a decline of the National (-0.2%).
Deflation of wholesale prices
On the deflation of this index, Castiglioni stressed that “While there was a decrease of 1.3% in April 2020in full pandemic, the comparison is not very valid. Taking this data, there was no decline since the current indicator started (in January 2016). It must be rolled up as of December 2008 (-0.3% m/m) for a similar decrease“
The Deflation of wholesale prices responds to the “correction” of the prices of Importedwhich in April had risen in both inmates and basics, while in May 4% fell.
“The imported ones came since the government regime changed increasing well below inflation, but in April they had had an increase closely linked to speculation and uncertainty. This month there was an almost snapshot correction, 4.1% fell and barely accumulate a 2.5% rise in the year “the specialist analyzed.
In that sense, the economist Rocio Bisang, of Ecogo, He stressed that “the data of the imported accounts for the normalization that is observed with respect to the outside products, that which adds certainty to the operations and the relative stability of the exchange rate, in a context where demand is still somewhat resentful.”
The wholesale variation was around -0.3% monthly and 22.4% year -on -year, below the increase in the official currency that climbed 2.2% monthly average and 29.7% year -on -year. “This is something that also happened last year and is a change with respect to the historical, when not only the stocks were imposed, but of the SIRA (Import System of the Argentine Republic) and the obstacles to import where we saw that systematically every month the wholesalers increased a greater rhythm than the exchange rate and that had to do with the fact that that lack of payment and delay were being carried at prices,” Castiglioni added.
In that line, he stressed that “Electrical machines and devices dropped 2.9% and that in the year accumulate a 1.9% increase. This has to do with the opening of imports, the normalization of payments and also the decline of tariffs and quotas”.
However, for Bisang This decrease “does not mean that the next months is sustained, nor that it is transferred linearly to retail inflation.”
From LCG they highlighted the incidence of services in the price index and added that “When the services systematically increase above the goods, at some point the price levels have to be equated, and that usually happens with higher increases in goods than with deflation of services, so this dynamic predicts an inertial floor”.
Meanwhile, for Castiglioni the data reflects “the decline of tariffs, some kind of economic policy decisions and also not loading financial costs or uncertainty as previously occurred when the greatest import restriction began.” “This also favors the rest of the production chain. It is a very positive fact that deepens the inflation data to the consumer of May -1.5% – which was also positive,” he added.
Source: Ambito
