For a long time, the corona numbers in Germany fell continuously. But this development has been stopped for the time being by the delta variant. Was that it now with the relaxation?
What experts feared has happened: While the proportion of the more contagious delta variant is growing, the decline in the corona numbers has slowed down. For the first time since the beginning of June, the seven-day incidence has actually increased compared to the previous day – albeit only slightly. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants and week on Sunday morning as 5.0. The previous day the value was 4.9.
Overall, the corona numbers are still very low and fluctuate at times, but two other values indicate an end to the sharp decline: On the second day in a row, the number of new infections was higher than on the same day of the previous week. The health authorities in Germany reported 559 new corona infections to the RKI within one day. A week ago it was 538. The R value, which shows how many people an infected person infects on average, had recently increased and, according to the RKI, reached 1 on Friday evening – it was not that high for more than two months more.
Warnings from virologists come true
A pandemic curve usually flattens out when the number has fallen sharply. Nevertheless, the Delta variant, which was first registered in India, could now have contributed to it. Modelers and virologists had warned that the delta variant (B.1.617.2), which was detected for the first time in India, could exacerbate the relaxed corona situation again. It is considered more infectious, an infected person infects more people on average than with previous variants.
Especially since the end of May, Delta’s share of new infections in Germany had risen significantly. According to RKI estimates, at least half of the new infections are now due to the mutant, as it writes in its current variant report. The most recent data available to date show a share of 37 percent of the samples examined for the week from June 14th to 20th. According to the RKI, it was only 17 percent the week before.
Ciesek calls for quick containment with tests and quarantine
The Frankfurt virologist Sandra Ciesek also said in the podcast “Coronavirus-Update” (NDR-Info) on Tuesday that she assumed that Delta was already predominant in certain areas, perhaps even across Germany. There was a relatively large outbreak in Frankfurt. This was similar to what had already been observed in Great Britain: “It started at school and then spread.” Ciesek urged Germany to contain it quickly with tests and quarantine.
Even if the value reported on Sunday could be an ordinary fluctuation or the stronger influence of individual, larger outbreaks with a lower incidence: A closer look at the development of the delta cases certainly indicates that the numbers are actually continuing to rise could. Because while fewer and fewer people are infected with the most recently prevalent alpha variant, the absolute number of detected delta infections has increased in recent weeks, according to the RKI: After 410 such infections were recorded in the week from May 31 to June 6 According to the latest data, the RKI received 724 reports from June 14 to 20. Only some of the corona samples are tested for the variants.
Epidemiologist: What is important is what happens in hospitals
In addition to the variants, other effects also have an effect on the development of the incidence. Experts had pointed out that the initially rapid decline is slowing down for mathematical reasons. In addition, it was expected that the number of cases would reach a plateau – and not go to zero. After all, Corona should not go away completely again anytime soon. So the incidence fluctuated even during the most relaxed times of this pandemic, in June and July 2020, a 3.
Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology in Bremen is not surprised by the latest figures. “From my point of view this is the expected course as soon as Delta outweighs. We now had extremely low numbers, now things are going up a bit,” he concluded. “But since the holidays are beginning, it should at best start slowly.” What is also important now is what happens in hospitals. On this point, the experiences from other countries have been positive so far, “as there have been very manageable increases and no major problems so far”.
First-time and unvaccinated people should be careful
In Germany itself there is still little experience with what the delta variant could mean for hospitals. “We don’t yet have enough data to really say how dangerous or harmless (…) it is,” RKI boss Lothar Wieler recently said – and spoke of the first indications of a higher rate of hospital treatments than that so far dominating alpha variant. According to the RKI, Delta has so far more likely to meet people under 60. Their risk of severe courses is considered to be significantly lower compared to very old people.
According to the RKI, 37.9 percent of the population was fully vaccinated by Thursday. If the vaccination protection has fully built up, the vaccinated have a high level of protection against hospital treatment, even at Delta, according to the current state of knowledge. Particularly unvaccinated people and people with just one dose should be careful, according to experts.
