Annalena Baerbock remains in the focus of the media – this is also noticeable in the surveys. The trend does not look good for the Greens, and the top candidate also loses on the question of the chancellor.
In a Forsa survey for the RTL / ntv trend barometer, the Greens fell below the 20 percent mark for the first time since the beginning of March. If the general election were on Sunday, the Greens would come to 19 percent (minus one percentage point compared to the previous week).
The Union would remain at 30 percent and thus the strongest political force. The opinion research institutes Insa and YouGov also recently saw the Greens below 20 percent, and all surveys confirm that the Union has a large lead.
According to Forsa, the SPD and AfD can each gain one percentage point compared to the previous week. The SPD currently comes to 15 percent, the AfD to 10 percent. The FDP reached 11 percent, the Left 7 percent. According to the information, 8 percent would choose one of the other parties. According to the information, the number of non-voters and undecided persons is 22 percent, slightly below the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8 percent).
If there was a direct election for the Chancellery, according to Forsa, 25 percent would currently vote for the Union candidate Armin Laschet – as many as in the previous week. Annalena Baerbock, Chancellor candidate of the Greens, therefore loses two percentage points and comes to 19 percent. SPD candidate Olaf Scholz scored 16 percent, two points more than in the previous week. 40 percent would still not vote for any of the three.
Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from June 29th to July 5th. The institute gives a statistical margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.
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