The delta variant ensures that even more people now have to be vaccinated in the fight against a fourth wave. The targeted vaccination rate is high. Can the numbers be achieved by autumn?
Summer. The incidences are low, the vaccination campaign drifts away and Germany breathes a sigh of relief. If it weren’t for the delta variant, which is on the advance and is preparing to stir up the pandemic situation vigorously. The corona variant is highly contagious, in order to take its power away, even more people now have to roll up their sleeves and get vaccinated than previously thought. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has increased the vaccination quota that can be achieved and estimates that instead of at least 80, at least 85 percent of the population must be immune to the coronavirus in order for the herd immunity to be achieved.
“If this vaccination quota is reached in time, a pronounced 4th wave in the coming autumn / winter seems unlikely,” writes the. But that is only part of the sentence that is continued with “if”. Three essential factors play a role: 1. Vaccine availability 2. The vaccine campaign must not be stalled by factors such as holidays and 3. “Basic hygiene measures” must continue to be observed. If the number of infections increases, contacts may have to be reduced again. But is that enough?
Herd immunity can hardly be achieved
Im stern-Interview, immunologist Carsten Watzl said at the end of June: “Herd immunity can hardly be achieved with the Delta variant.” He calculated that if you calculate that one person infects seven people – six out of seven people would have to be vaccinated. This corresponds to a vaccination rate of around 83 percent, a little lower than that which the RKI now estimates. “So we would have to vaccinate nearly 100 percent of the adult population to get this 83 percent. We will not reach that value,” he said. “Unless we have a large percentage of children and adolescents vaccinated.”
According to the RKI, at least 90 percent of those over the age of 60 and at least 85 percent of those aged 12 to 59 must be fully vaccinated. In view of the current figures, that is ambitious. Currently 39.3 percent of the total population have been vaccinated twice, 56.8 percent have received at least one vaccination dose (as of June 5th). According to official data, 65.1 percent of people aged 60 and over are fully vaccinated, and 36.6 percent of younger people aged between 18 and 59. The RKI is a little more optimistic than Watzl and cites a survey on the willingness of citizens to vaccinate, which was carried out between mid-May and early June. “There was a willingness to vaccinate, which made the target vaccination rates identified in the model appear achievable,” write the experts in the bulletin.
Vaccination fatigue noticeable
In order to boost the numbers up quickly, the vaccination campaign must be pushed ahead or, as the RKI writes, “be continued with high intensity”. But the picture that is currently being seen in many vaccination centers is different. With the booking situation, a holiday effect is unmistakable, said Martin Helfrich, spokesman for the Hamburg health authorities last week. Thousands of appointments are currently unbooked in the city’s central vaccination center. And Christoph Schulze, medical director of the vaccination centers in the Rhein-Neckar district, said in an interview with the stern: “Unfortunately, we have already noticed a certain amount of vaccination fatigue. At the moment we mainly assign second vaccination appointments, appointments for first vaccinations are booked very slowly.”
The fight against the Delta variant and a fourth wave could once again turn into a race against time. With regard to the delta variant in particular, it is crucial “that the as yet unvaccinated population is motivated to take advantage of the vaccination offer in the summer in order to achieve the necessary vaccination rates as soon as possible,” writes the RKI.
Health expert Karl Lauterbach also sees it that way. Regarding the RKI’s new estimate, he wrote on Twitter: “The idea ‘we’ll open when everyone has had an offer, whoever doesn’t want has already’ won’t work. There would be a lot of sick people.” He suggests: “We have to take the vaccine out on the street. In the nightlife areas, in front of the shisha bars, in front of the cafes.” This is the only way we can approach 85 percent of adults. In addition, he writes, a vaccination recommendation for adolescents aged 12 and over would help.
The Standing Vaccination Commission currently does not recommend a generalized corona vaccination for adolescents from the age of 12, but only for certain previous illnesses, for example, and claims that they rarely get seriously ill with Covid-19. The recommendation had recently caused increased criticism, especially with regard to the return to schools after the summer holidays. Now Health Minister Jens Spahn also expressed the hope in the ARD “Morgenmagazin” that many children and young people would be vaccinated without a recommendation. He said vaccine supplies had improved to such an extent that all children and adolescents could have a first appointment by the end of August. Whoever wants can be vaccinated. “I think we should let the children and young people decide for themselves.”
