In the final version of a Policy Brief of the forecasting consortium for the risk assessment of the Delta variant, which the consortium created on behalf of the Ministry of Health, it says that maximizing the vaccination rate (full immunization) must have “top priority”.
In the rough report of the letter, which is also available to the APA, a reintroduction of various measures is also recommended – depending on the number of cases and the stresses on the health system. The FFP2 mask requirement (currently abolished in broad areas) should therefore be reintroduced from a threshold value of a risk-adjusted seven-day incidence of 25. Currently, 7.3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants are currently lower – the threshold of 25 was fallen below on June 6th.
In the case of increasing hospitalizations in the normal wards, the reintroduction of “social distancing” is recommended, for example the reintroduction of the two-meter distance. In the event of a continuous increase in the number of COVID patients in the intensive care units (which is currently unlikely), a “lockdown light” will be considered again, including a renewed closure of leisure facilities and restrictions in the event of meetings. A real “lockdown” is only recommended when approaching a “system-critical” utilization of the intensive care units.
“This is the calm before the storm”
Both in the draft report and in the final version, the consortium emphasized that the data available (mainly from Great Britain) indicate that “the delta variant is significantly more transmissible than the previously dominant alpha variant (B.1.1. 7) is “. Initial estimates would indicate a transmissibility that is around 50 percent higher than the previously dominant alpha variant. “In the UK, the delta variant is currently dominant with a prevalence of over 90 percent,” it said.
Video: fourth CoV wave likely
The experts expect “prevalences” similar to those in the United Kingdom as early as July. Virologist Monika Redlberger-Fritz (MedUni Vienna) also sees it this way: “That is probably the calm before the storm,” she said in ORF’s “ZiB2” on Thursday evening about the current situation. She also emphasized the need for a high level of vaccination – because in Great Britain you can currently see that the number of cases is increasing sharply, but thanks to the high vaccination rate, the number of hospitalizations is only “very, very slowly”.
Clear rejection of the elimination of the mask requirement
The expert was very skeptical about any major events such as music festivals: This could only be done with “extreme caution”, it would be best to keep your distance as possible. There was clear rejection of the elimination of the mask requirement in trade or public transport that was brought into play by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP). “I’m a very strong advocate of wearing masks.”
Despite the expected rapid increase in the delta variant with the replacement of the currently dominant alpha variant in Austria, the consortium does not expect any major problems in the long term: “A system-critical coating in hospitals is unlikely in the summer of 2021, however.”
High vaccination coverage is “essential”
Increasing the vaccination coverage and willingness to vaccinate in all population groups is “essential, because:” At a vaccination coverage (full immunization) of 70 percent, the hypothetical herd immunity threshold for the delta variant has not yet been reached, especially in the colder months of the year. ” with a vaccination coverage of 70 percent (full immunization) or higher, “it can be assumed that in population groups with low vaccination coverage, larger clusters or uncontrolled transmission in these population groups can occur”.
The traffic light commission shared this assessment with regard to a fourth wave – but according to their data the situation is still calm. The Covid-specific exposure of the intensive care units recently fell to 2.2 percent and is likely to go further down for the time being. The vaccination coverage has reached a level of 62 percent. The Commission, too, insists as soon as possible on measures to push this value upwards.
The Corona traffic light hardly experienced any color change this week. Only Vorarlberg moved into the Green Zone, which expresses a very low risk of infection. This means that only the three eastern federal states of Vienna, Lower Austria and Burgenland as well as the entire state are in the yellow-green zone, which stands for low risk.
