Interest rates in the zero range, plus a rise in inflation, massive increases in energy: prices are currently rising sharply. At the business talk of Hypo Oberösterreich and OÖN, it was discussed whether the current inflation is the beginning of a long-term crisis or just a temporary specter.
“We have massively underestimated inflation in the past few quarters,” said Gabriel Felbermayr, designated Wifo boss and currently still president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, at the beginning of the evening. For him, the United States is one of the main drivers of this development: “Nobody really had any idea that any restraint in US fiscal policy would be abandoned.”
“Suddenly no longer affordable”
In any case, the unease among the population is justified, according to Felbermayr, who sees problems with food and the construction sector above all. “Suddenly, projects are no longer affordable.”
Anette Klinger, co-owner and managing director of IFN Holding with the best-known brand Internorm, sees less price problems than serious supply problems: “We have stomach ache as to whether we have the materials we need in the right place at the right time. At the moment, ridiculous ones are starting Things like a screw becoming a problem. ” In addition, she is worried about the trade war between Russia, China and the United States, said Klinger.
Swietelsky CEO Karl Weidlinger drew an ambivalent picture: The construction industry has never really come to a standstill for a few weeks despite Corona. Unfortunately, in the past, industry failed to be able to provide for itself. “Giving up your own productions is now taking revenge.” The prices for certain products would have doubled.
There was agreement that the markets had become much tighter.
“I am currently experiencing a lot of uncertainty as to where one should develop: Should one go into growth now? Should one invest now?”, Said Klinger about possible overheating. Inflation could be further fueled by the autumn salary negotiations. The issue of the wage round is essential, it should not be overdone. “Only a small part remains in the employee’s wallet, a large part ends up in the Treasury.” Austria is not an island in a giant ocean, but in the middle of Europe, and there are very attractive countries in the vicinity to produce, warned Klinger of a weakening of the location.
The general director of Hypo Oberösterreich, Klaus Kumpfmüller, spoke of a “creeping expropriation of savers” in view of the current developments including zero interest rates. With around 300 billion euros on Austrian savings accounts and a corresponding interest rate and inflation rate, this would result in a loss of purchasing power of six billion euros in one year alone.
What is probable
“What is currently happening is not in the textbook,” says Felbermayr about the current unconventional financial policy, which breaks a taboo. “We enable national debt through the printing press.”
Inflation is a bit like a black swan “that seldom flies over land, but when it flies over land it does a lot of damage.” The risk of long-term inflation is not very high, but further developments are difficult to predict. “A revival of a major inflationary crisis is conceivable, but with a low probability,” said the economist. In any case, there are powerful instruments available to control inflation. “You can rely on this kind of leadership relatively well,” says Felbermayr. (tob)
The talk to see:
Business worries
Upper Austrian industry is also concerned with the risk of inflation. This was shown in a discussion between 20 company bosses with economic researcher Gabriel Felbermayr and Economic Councilor Markus Achleitner in Linz. Not only rising energy and raw material costs would drive prices up, but also the shortage of employees. The wage round in autumn is only a price driver. The fact that companies entice employees away from one another and give each other a lot of extra work has an even stronger effect.
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
