It would mean a partial departure from the incidence value in Germany. According to a report in the “Bild” newspaper, the Robert Koch Institute wants to recommend hospitalization as an additional leading indicator in the corona pandemic.
According to a media report, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) wants to recommend hospitalization (i.e. hospital stays) as an additional leading indicator to classify the pandemic in Germany. The reported, citing an internal presentation by the RKI. Such a practice would mean a departure from the incidence value as the most important indicator of corona policy. The RKI wanted to respond to the report on request of stern do not express. In general, a publication of the strategy paper was planned for autumn / winter in July, it said.
“Several indicators are still necessary for evaluation, but the weighting of the indicators among each other changes”, according to “Bild” in the RKI paper. The institute justifies the addition of hospitalization with the “consequences of increasing basic immunity”.
A total of four indicators are important
According to the report, the RKI expects a “decrease in the proportion of severe cases” and therefore calls for a “greater focus on the consequences of the infection”, including serious illnesses with hospitalization, deaths and long-term consequences. “Far-reaching non-pharmacological interventions for everyone” are difficult to justify from a technical point of view – except when there is a threat of systematic overloading of the health system, “Bild” quotes from the RKI presentation.
A paper by the RKI from June called “ControlCOVID” describes a step-by-step plan and perspectives for withdrawing corona measures in connection with the vaccination campaign by September of this year. Four indicators are named for classifying the epidemic situation at the local level: the 7-day incidence, the weekly incidence of hospitalized cases among those over 60, the proportion of contact persons who can be tracked and the proportion of Covid-19 treated in intensive care -Cases based on the total number of usable intensive bed capacity. The latter indicator is listed as the “lead indicator”.
On the basis of these indicators, four levels are named for the imposition or relaxation of corona protective measures. The RKI also writes: “In the reclassification, a leading leading indicator should be considered in combination with the other auxiliary indicators.” In the case of an “escalation” the 7-day incidence is the leading indicator and in the case of a “de-escalation” the occupancy of the intensive care beds.
Hans calls for a move away from incidence
In summary, the RKI paper says: “According to the assumptions of the modeling, the results presented here suggest that the opening steps proposed in ControlCOVID in the context of the ongoing vaccination campaign will not lead to uncontrolled infection in Germany, provided they are as proposed in the strategy are carried out at the assumed times, the vaccination campaign is proceeding in the assumed manner and no variants are established that effectively undermine the vaccination protection. “
Saarland’s Prime Minister Tobias Hans (CDU) called for a move away from incidence as the only factor. “I think it is very important that we do not stare at the incidence alone this fall,” he said on Monday in the ZDF morning magazine. Instead, one should look at the burden on the health system. He also thinks that pulling the “federal emergency brake” again from an incidence of 100 is “wrong”: “I also don’t see that this is coming,” said Hans, who is calling for further relaxation of the corona measures. Still, one shouldn’t be carefree.
Ministry of Health: 7-day incidence “remains an important parameter”
The Federal Ministry of Health pointed out on Monday that the so-called 7-day incidence will continue to be taken into account. “The incidence was never the only parameter to assess the pandemic. But it is and will remain an important parameter,” said a spokesman. However, it is also correct that the incidence loses its informative value as the vaccination rate increases, the spokesman added. Especially when the particularly vulnerable groups have already been vaccinated. Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) had already expressed himself several times, most recently at the weekend.
Therefore, more data should be taken into account more in the future. The Federal Ministry of Health announced on the weekend that the clinics should report more details on Covid-19 cases. In addition to the occupancy of intensive care units, all hospital admissions for corona must be transmitted, plus the age, type of treatment and vaccination status of the patients. The relevant ordinance should be initiated quickly, the ministry said on Sunday.
The nationwide seven-day incidence on Sunday was 6.2. Even if the number of corona cases is currently low, the spread of the particularly contagious delta variant gives cause for concern. Most recently, the RKI announced that the variant first identified in India is now responsible for more than 50 percent of all infections with the corona virus in Germany.
News agencies DPA and AFP,,,
