From hearth fire to solar power plant: when expanding their energy supply, many developing countries will skip gas and coal, predicts a new study.
According to a new study by two non-governmental organizations, global electricity production from fossil fuels presumably peaked in 2018.
Because of the sharp drop in the costs of solar and wind energy, many developing countries would virtually skip coal and gas when expanding their energy supply, argue the British initiative Carbon Tracker and the Indian institute CEEW in the paper published on Wednesday.
The study is primarily based on the data and forecasts of the International Energy Agency IEA and the OECD. The starting point is that energy consumption in emerging and developing countries is rising much faster than in the industrialized countries of the West and Japan.
In 2019, according to OECD data, the average US citizen consumed over 10 megawatt hours of electricity per capita, Europeans and Chinese less than 6 megawatt hours, while Indians and Africans only consumed around one megawatt hour.
By 2040, 88 percent of the increasing demand for electricity will arise in the so-called “emerging markets” – first and foremost China, followed by India and countries like Vietnam. According to data from the OECD, the peak of fossil electricity production in the developed industrialized countries was already exceeded in 2007.
China plays a key role as the People’s Republic is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the demand for energy continues to grow rapidly. The authors assume that almost 40 percent of the world’s increasing demand for electricity will occur in China by 2040. At the moment, more coal-fired electricity is being built in China than green electricity, but the authors assume that this will change by 2025.
Apart from China, according to the study, the increasing electricity consumption in emerging and developing countries is already largely covered by renewable energies. According to this, 87 percent of the increase in electricity production was generated with the help of wind and sun in 2019. Overall, however, wind power in particular has played a subordinate role in energy generation in these countries with a 4 percent share in electricity production.
The authors see an analogy in the development of the telephone over the past few decades: many developing countries have never set up a landline network. Instead, functioning cellular networks have even emerged in countries that have been plagued by decades of war, such as Afghanistan.
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
