At Tui this summer it’s all or nothing: will the restart work with enough business in the main season? Autumn and winter are already casting their shadows ahead.
According to Tui, the spread of the delta variant of the corona virus and the desire for later bookings could lead to an extension of the 2021 travel season.
In principle, CFO Sebastian Ebel told the news agencies dpa and dpa-AFX that he saw a good chance of bringing the mutant, who was considered aggressive, under control: “We assume that there is still a high level of protection.” Overall, the booking development is currently solid. Due to cautious customers, among other things, the largest tourism group is preparing for catch-up effects that could drag on until the end of the year.
“I would not be surprised if the summer season 2021 was to be longer first of all,” said Ebel. “At least November should still be feasible without any problems, maybe it can even go until after Christmas here and there.”
Tui is advised on the effectiveness of the vaccine by the founding director of the Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology in Berlin, Stefan Kaufmann. The Delta variant will “also wane in England if more people there are vaccinated twice,” said Ebel about the important market. In addition, one has to filter out people with asymptomatic courses through further tests: “We have done well in Germany so far, the issue is under control overall.”
The TUI chief financial officer called on vacationers to remain cautious at home so as not to jeopardize opening steps. He personally would keep the mask on if he went into public interiors. “But not when I’m sitting at a table or on the sun lounger,” says Ebel. «If at some point the incidences hopefully go to zero, one can certainly be more generous. Until then, I think it’s good to take test opportunities as often as possible. This explicitly applies not only to holidays, but also to the child who goes to school again or to going to the shop. ”
At the moment, Tui is feeling – despite the difficult situation in Great Britain with postponed further easing – an overall “very clear recovery”. In the business quarter from July to September, more money will flow in than flow out, a turnaround to a stable main season after the drastic slumps in 2020 is possible. But some consumers may continue to wait in view of the not yet safe conditions everywhere. “If, as in Portugal, openings and new closings alternate at intervals of a few weeks, that makes customers think: When do I book – now, or when the travel rules are clear?” Said Ebel.
A longer season could also compensate for earlier losses for the classic southern destinations. «That would be a huge opportunity for Greece in particular, as well as for Cyprus and Mallorca. And the Canaries and Madeira in particular could be winners. ” For the winter of 2021/22, Tui will have greater scope to react to the fixed capacities of flights and hotel beds: “It is difficult to estimate whether the next winter will end up at 70 or 130 percent compared to the pre-Corona level in 2019.” Good business is expected.
Tui is picking up on the trend towards more holidays in Germany. There are “initiatives for new sources of revenue,” said Ebel. “One of them is that we market accommodations without traveling, in other words the business that Booking.com also operates. We have the greatest growth in Austria, followed by Germany and Croatia. ”
In addition, it is not about building new hotels at home, but about the possible operation of other houses: “We can pick up the customer more often because he is perhaps on vacation in Spain or on a city trip, but perhaps also wants to do something in Germany again. » According to the Tui board of directors, the package tour is experiencing a renaissance at the same time – risks of individual planning and the need for advice are the triggers.
The group was supported by the state and its private shareholders with billions in order to get back on track after the existence-threatening year 2020. Therefore, Tui 2021 is all about it. The prospects for sufficient liquidity are currently positive, said Ebel. “This change is also very important for the employees. We only had costs for months due to the closings, now things are clearly improving, you can feel it. ”
It is crucial to “do a good job operationally” in the coming weeks and months. At the end of March, the total of the available advance payments was 1.9 billion euros, in normal years it would be more than double that at the time. “Because our level is the way it is, less can flow off,” said the Tui CFO. “The previous value should carry us through the winter well.”
The net debt in the group was most recently at 6.8 billion euros. “Of these, however, half were leasing liabilities, for example for aircraft or hotels, which we do not have to refinance on an ongoing basis, but which are secured by our assets,” said Ebel. “Overall, we are solidly financed for the winter until there is a greater inflow of funds from operations from January.”
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