Hardly any contagions and fewer restrictions: it feels like the pandemic is coming to an end. But the proportion of the Corona variant Delta is also increasing in this country. What could that mean for the coming weeks?
At the moment, life in Germany feels almost normal again, because the Corona ghost delta is disturbing the summer euphoria. The more contagious variant is also gaining in importance in this country, making a possible fourth wave more likely. However, it is difficult to predict whether it will actually come and how bad it will be.
According to Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn, the current pandemic phase is also about finding the right balance with a view to the delta variant. “We can now loosen up,” said the CDU politician on Sunday evening in the ARD program “Report from Berlin”. However, the mood should not lead to high spirits. “So: Confidence for the summer, but also caution, especially towards autumn and winter.”
“I am now ready to say that we are now in the race in Germany with the Delta variant,” said the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten on Friday evening at the online congress for infectious diseases and tropical medicine. “We have to take this really seriously from now on.” Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) warned that the variant first known in India would be dominant in Germany in three to four weeks. And Ifo President Clemens Fuest said “t-online”: “The Delta variant is a serious threat to the German economy.”
According to an analysis by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for the first week of June, the proportion of the delta variant (B.1.617.2) in Germany has almost doubled to six percent within just one week. The RKI assumes that infections with the Delta variant could lead to more severe disease courses.
At the same time, the corona situation continues to ease. The number of corona patients in the intensive care unit fell below 1000 for the first time since October, the RKI gave the seven-day incidence on Monday at 8.6 (previous day: 8.8). No city or county has broken the 50 incidence mark anymore. The concern is that the numbers could rise again if the more contagious delta variant becomes dominant.
Lisbon cordoned off because of the delta
In some other countries like India and the UK, Delta is already striking hard. The Portuguese capital Lisbon was cordoned off at the weekend because of the mutant. A record number of new infections was recorded in Russia’s capital Moscow. According to Mayor Sergej Sobyanin, almost 90 percent of Covid diseases can be traced back to Delta. Moscow – like all of Russia – continues to fight against a great deal of vaccination skepticism among the population.
The situation now in Germany is somewhat comparable to that in England in May, said Drosten. In Great Britain, the delta variant had clearly dominated the infection process within a few weeks, despite advanced vaccination rates. The seven-day incidences rose again – from 20 to around 80 most recently. Easing was therefore stopped. It was mainly young adults who were infected, said Drosten. In England, the infections mainly took place in the vaccination gaps.
“If we were to calculate the way things have developed in England, with an approximate doubling per week, then we would have this speculative scenario: Then we would be at 20 percent this week,” said Drosten. At the beginning of July, the delta variant would then also dominate in Germany. “And we should expect that the number of registrations in Germany will rise again at the beginning of July,” concluded the scientist. But that is still pure speculation and a hypothesis. Germany still has a chance if it can further reduce the incidence in the next few weeks. “What could also help are the school holidays. In England it started in schools. That is a clear difference.”
So far, however, no increased re-infection rate has been observed. “That means those who are either vaccinated or infected are well protected.” A loss of the relationship between the number of cases and the burden of disease is also to be expected in the future. Despite the infection, the infections would then be mild or not noticeable at all.
Delta becomes a danger to the non-immunized
The corona modeler Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin recently told the Tagesspiegel: “If we put together the knowledge about the delta mutant and the vaccine protection that declines over time, our model results in a fourth wave in the transmissions if countermeasures are not taken . ” In vaccinated and convalescent people, children and adolescents, this is unlikely to cause any severe courses. However, almost all of the non-immunized are infected by the wave at approximately the same time. “In the model, this still puts a considerable strain on the clinics.” It is plausible that this wave will come at the end of the warm season or earlier.
Nagel emphasized that as many people as possible should get full vaccination protection as quickly as possible. So far, almost every third person in Germany has been fully vaccinated, and a good half have had a first dose.
In addition, Nagel advocates preparing now for measures that may be necessary in autumn. Others follow the same notch. The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck told the “Fuldaer Zeitung”: “We are failing to learn as much as possible from the pandemic and to prepare for autumn and winter. The general impression is that the virus is disappearing and that we have overcome the pandemic when run quietly for the next few months. ”
In the opinion of Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU), corona measures will therefore have to be maintained in schools in autumn and winter. At an online conference of the Evangelical Academy in Tutzing on Saturday, he mentioned the mask requirement and changing instruction. “Millions of people set in motion who would otherwise not move and meet each other,” he explained. That could become a “hub into the households”.
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