Employment
Although the AI will boost the creation of new jobs, with 30% of total employment benefiting from new technologies, job destruction would be greater than job creation.
The Fund projects that 33% of jobs in developed countries are at risk, 24% in developing countries and 18% in the poorest countries.
The biggest impact on richer countries is because their workforce is proportionally more qualified and the AI For now, the unemployment rate is expected to increase structurally (beyond the cyclical impact) by an additional 2% percentage points over the next 5 years.
As an example, it can be seen how the AI is displacing jobs in translation services, and this substitution is also very noticeable in various customer service services carried out by robots.
Although developing countries are seen a priori as less threatened in the immediate future, the truth is that these countries have an economy with less capacity to cushion the impact of technological change on employment, both from the resources to offset income and to create new jobs that benefit from high technology.
In fact, we can see that AI produces not only texts, but also presentations, film material and even works of art. Let us recall the recent strike of screenwriters in Hollywood who stopped not only because of salary claims but also because of the use of artificial intelligence in the industry.
Productivity
While AI would theoretically increase the productivity of the economy, this presupposes that displaced workers are reintegrated into activities with at least similar productivity.
There are multiple issues to be resolved to allow the expansion of new AI technologies from intellectual property issues to legal issues of civil liability (e.g. autonomous cars). A hot topic is how States will limit or regulate the use of AI. AI to moderate the most contentious aspects.
A key aspect is whether systems of AI closed systems, such as the most advanced and expensive ones that are being developed, or less expensive open systems are disseminated that allow for better production processes throughout the economy and not just in large companies.
Inequity
Another hot issue is how this technology will affect age groups and educational levels. The most likely scenario is that skilled workers at mid-levels and over 40 years of age will be replaced by younger workers with lower wages. An increase in structural unemployment will reduce the wage bill.
One issue is the future quality of consumption (including food) by social strata. There is no doubt that the provision of mass goods and services will be provided by low-cost automated mechanisms. Quality human attention will be more expensive for high-income sectors. A pianist will play his works for those who can pay and the rest of society will have to settle for reproducing electronic media, including works composed and reproduced by AI.
In recent decades, inequality has increased due to higher unemployment (Europe), greater income inequality (United States) and both causes together in Latin America.
Concentration of the Economy
From the 40s to the 70s, after the Second World War And given the hegemonic war between capitalism and communism, it was possible to reconcile an economic growth rate with a growing demand, which required more employment and better wages.
Access to especially durable industrial goods and entertainment services that until the 1930s were exclusive to the wealthiest sectors became popular.
Since the 1970s, economic concentration has been advancing in the world. The expansion of consumption is more oriented towards less durable and high-end products aimed at higher-income sectors. This allows the economy to grow as it did 100 years ago in an increasingly unequal world.
In relation to what we saw of the type of AI predominant (closed versus open systems), for now temporarily free basic systems predominate and AI you pay for more powerful and with better information.
This leads to strong profit growth for the “Magnificent Seven” Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla that concentrate the greatest profits and share capitalization in the USA.
The largest companies are no longer the automotive companies, the energy companies or the banks. Microsoft and Apple lead the capitalization of Nasdaq (second stock market in United States), Nvidia the most oriented to AI is in third place and Amazon in sixth. Microsoft has a market capitalization of US$2.10 trillion, five times the GDP of Argentina and almost 9% of the GDP of the USAThe Magnificent 7 together already represent 40% of the North American product.
In fact, the Magnificent Seven created, together with other large multinational companies, an entity called the Coalition for a AI (COSAI) which aims to establish “self-regulation of the sector. States must establish regulations that defend both employment and adequate care for vulnerable people, the elderly and people with different abilities, in addition to the protection of personal data.
Public policies
There is no doubt that States must promote the introduction of technology into the economy, but they must neutralize or compensate for its regressive effects. There is a strong ethical and economic discussion about everything that the introduction of technology will entail. AI in civil and social rights.
At a global level and as a process of increasing inequality, States have been reducing taxes on capital and raising taxes on labour. Since 1980, taxes on capital have been lower than taxes on labour. Global taxes on workers rose from 25% to 30% in 2022, while taxes on capital fell from 27% to 20%. This introduces an additional bias towards reducing workers and increasing unemployment.
The Fund itself promotes raising income taxes worldwide and introducing taxes on the rich to redistribute the benefits of productivity.
In the Argentina We are going against the global trend of raising direct taxes, which has driven globally the US Treasury Secretary Janet YellenThe latest tax reform promoted this year by the Argentine government reduces taxes for the rich and taxes workers.
artificial-intelligence.jpg
Another issue is that, in order to avoid unemployment, developed countries promote a reduction in working hours in order to redistribute human work among more people and improve living conditions. In this respect, we are also going against the grain in the labour reform under discussion.
A central issue is the promotion of science and technology, the need for a larger budget for research as all central and emerging countries do (in the Argentina We defund the Conicet) and the strengthening of technology companies (INVAP, Arsatetc.). Far from promoting these companies, their budget is reduced and although their privatization was avoided with the changes introduced in the Ley Bases, their emptying advances and the entry into the Argentine market of foreign competitors is facilitated, with almost unlimited resources and who have the full support of their States in USA and Europe.
One last issue is a huge challenge to address. Without giving up on thinking of societies where people have decent work, Argentina must implement sustainable income that does not depend entirely on personal contribution.
This requires strengthening the social security system in the face of changes in work modalities. In addition to protecting employment, more and more countries are strengthening their public social security systems. The possibility of 30 years of contributions in a formal job becomes a utopia when adults lose their jobs while still young, even in countries with productive policies.
Our current debate on pensions is 100 years behind the times. It is necessary to finance with tax resources pensions that will be less and less contributory and to design a social security scheme with unemployment insurance and universal citizen income with multiple pillars (contributory and non-contributory) so that people have decent income throughout their lives.
The world of work will undergo radical changes in the next 5-10 years. Developed countries have a comprehensive agenda that involves generating greater productivity, reducing concentration, protecting employment and strengthening social security.
An agenda that is undoubtedly “insufficient” to alleviate the negative consequences of technological change, but that attempts to limit a breeding ground for growing unemployment with a social impact of magnitude that has generated a terrible impact worldwide. world war 85 years ago.
While the Argentina Contrary to the world’s trend, concentration and monopoly are being praised, an economic framework, regulations, and a tax and pension system are being established that, far from promoting growth and equity, will generate dangerous and growing stagnation, poverty, and inequality.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
