Hence, President Javier Milei said in Congress, before the deputies who support his administration and some opponents, that the governors have to do a cut of US$60 billion, a figure that, according to analysts, would be equivalent to the total annual spending of subnational governments.
In fact, if you look at the data from the 2025 Budget, the Government is predicting that the provinces are in surplus due to an increase in resources. And, implicitly, he is clarifying to the leaders of the interior that Don’t try to increase spending if you are going to receive more funds.
This is what the economist points out Alejandro Pegoraro, director of Politician Chaco. The consulting firm presented an analysis of the official projections, in which it estimates that the federal states will receive resources totaling 8% of GDP. Pegoraro estimates that for the provinces The adjustment was -24.3% in the first quarter for a total of 24 jurisdictions and the partial of Second quarter was -20.6% for 13 provinces.”
“By 2025, the national government plans improvements for all provinces and the City of Buenos Aires, which would close the year with a primary surplus of 0.3% of GDP and a balance in the financial result”says the analysis of Politikon Chaco.
Automatic transfers to provinces are expected to increase
On the other hand, it is noted that “based on the estimate of national tax collection, the distribution to provinces and CABA by Automatic transfers would represent 49% of the collection (excluding foreign trade and social security), a higher level than in the years 2021-2024.”
In this regard, it is noted that “the text of the project contemplates that automatic transfers to provinces and CABA reach $57 trillion by 2025, equivalent to 7.5% of GDP.”
“Assuming that tax revenue would grow by 37.6% in 2025 (according to the message of the budget project), Automatic transfers could grow by 39% in that year compared to 2024,” adds the analysis.
Regarding shipments non-automaticequivalent to half a point of GDP, “the transfers to provinces and municipalities projected for the year 2025 would be in the order of $3.6 trillion. Of that total, $3.3 trillion corresponds to current transfers and $0.3 trillion to capital transfers,” the study says.
Politikon Chaco clarifies that “the novelty in this case is that, even assuming that these are nominally low values in relation to the budget (they would be equivalent to 3.1% of the expenditure), These transfers to provinces and municipalities would have an increase of 69.9% compared to the estimated closing for 2024.”
“Growth would be driven mainly by current transfers (+77.4%) and to a lesser extent by capital transfers (+21.1%). Thus, these consolidated transfers would grow almost twice as much as the estimated total expenditure (+32.8%),” says the study.
In addition, Article 59 of the 2025 National Budget project establishes: a budget credit of $254.421 million from Anses for transfers to provincial pension funds that did not transfer their pension systems to the National State, as an advance on the final result of the provincial pension system.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
