The rating agency said that “external pressures on the exchange rate and international reserves are persistent challenges.” It also expressed concern about the shortage of foreign currency to meet bond payments in 2025.
The risk rating agency Moody’s warned in a report about the exchange rate gap that exists in Argentina and the negative reserveswhich are essential to meet debt bond payments in 2025. “External pressures on the exchange rate and international reserves are persistent challenges,” he said.
“The government faces a political dilemma because it plans to eventually liberalize the economy and move to a market-determined official exchange rate, but in doing so it risks a pick-up in inflation after almost a year of progress,” Moody’s said.
At the same time, it is analyzed that the gap between the official and blue currency rates is wide, because the latter is “30% weaker” than the parallel currency.
About the BCRA reserves The rating agency was blunt: “The probability of a default in the form of a forced debt exchange remains high until the end of next year.” This analysis is the result of considering the net foreign exchange estimated at negative US$10 billion as “very low.”
Despite the aforementioned warnings, Moody’s praised the fiscal commitment detailed by the President when presenting the 2025 Budget. They describe the Government’s plan as “positive”, which aims to: “correct the serious imbalances” affecting the Argentine economy.
“The government’s bold consolidation plan is credit-positive and supports efforts to correct the serious imbalances affecting the Argentine economy,” the report concludes.
Source: Ambito
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