He mass consumption continues to show worrying signs in the Argentine economy. According to recent data from INDEC, economic activity in July improved 1.7% compared to June, but the outlook for consumption remains gloomy.
In an interview with Noticias Argentinas, Osvaldo del Río, director of the consulting firm Scentia, delved into the behavior of consumption during recent months and expectations for the end of the year.
Del Río detailed that packaged mass consumption, which includes food, beverages, cosmetics and cleaning products with barcodes, has suffered a contraction of 17.2% in August compared to the same month last year.
“We knew that the second half of the year would be the hardest of the year because it is compared to the best bases of 2022, when there were concrete actions to encourage consumption in an electoral context,” he explained.
He also emphasized that all sales channels are in negative territory: “Supermarkets fell by 18%, self-service by 17%, and warehouses and kiosks by close to 17%. There is no sector that is being saved from this trend. “.
Hygiene and cosmetic products, as well as alcoholic beverages, have been among the hardest hit, with drops of more than 20%.
The worst semester ahead and stability only by 2025
Del Río warned that the outlook will not improve in the short term: “We may see double-digit declines up to and including November,” he stressed. According to its projections, consumption could end the year with a contraction of more than 10%, which would place 2024 as one of the worst years in terms of mass consumption in the last three decades.
“If this year ends with that drop, we will be below what was the worst moment of consumption in the 2001 crisis,” he stated.
Despite the negative figures, Del Río indicated that consumption has stabilized in recent months: “From April to August, sales have remained stable, without major drops from one month to the next. This makes us think that we are fixing a new base, which will last at least until 2025”.
However, this stability is not encouraging: “We are talking about a new normal of low consumption, which will be very difficult to reverse in the short term,” he explained.
The impact of inflation and real wages
Another determining factor in the fall in consumption has been the strong inflation and the consequent loss of purchasing power of Argentines. According to INDEC, in the first half of the year, real wages fell significantly, which led to a migration towards second and third brands.
“This is not something new,” said Del Río, “people have been looking for cheaper products for a long time, trying to make the most of their purchasing capacity.” Although some joint ventures have allowed a slight salary recovery, the gap between income and inflation remains very high.
When asked what to expect for the rest of the year, Del Río was clear: “We don’t see an improvement in the short term.
The falls are going to continue, and although consumption has stabilized, the situation is still worrying.”
In addition, he anticipated that the political and economic context after the elections could bring more adjustments and changes that directly impact consumption. “In December, after the electoral period, it is likely that some specific situations that continue to affect people’s pockets will become black and white,” he warned.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
