September inflation was 3.5%, its lowest level since November 2021as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). In this way, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accumulated 101.6% so far this year and fell sharply to 209% year-on-year.
Inflation managed to pierce 4%, a level that it could not break since May when it was located in 4.2%. In subsequent months it accelerated and decelerated without a clear trend: June (+4.6%), July (+4%), and August (+4.2%). For its part, For October, the deceleration of the monthly index is projected to continue, which could accelerate again at the end of the year.
October: what we can expect from the CPI
According to data from the price survey of S&T for the GBA So far in October they show a moderation, as they specified, “helped by minor adjustments in public services and the decreases in some foods (vegetables) and drinks (alcoholic).” In this way, four-week average inflation approached 3%.
For its part, according to the Retail Price Survey of Eco Goduring the first week of October, indicated that the weekly variation of food was 0.6%, which implies a RPM projection for the entire month of 3.1%. “The slowdown in food combined with the drop in the price of gas and fuel contribute to moderating the index in the month,” they added.
In turn, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Foundation Freedom and Progressgoing forward, the data for the first week of October mark “a price dynamic even slower than September 2, thus the CPI could be closer to 3%. While between now and the end of the year we are projecting a CPI that will be in the range 3% – 3.5%.
“In addition, cost reduction measures on imports, tariffs and non-tariffs, will also help lower the prices of various products, benefiting consumers. The reality is that the prices of tradable goods, which are clearly observed in the wholesale price index, have already practically converged to the 2% monthly crawling-peg of the official exchange rate.“he explained.
CPI: could rise in the last part of the year
For their part, Libertad y Progreso explained that the increases could occur from the non-tradable side. Although they announced that “they will continue to rise a little more, they will do so at such a magnitude that the general CPI can be accommodated between 3%-3.5%.” Variations above this range will be explained more than anything by if it is decided to move forward with updating regulated prices; although for now no major adjustments are expected in this areaMari explained.
“Given the fiscal anchor and with the economy recovering, next year Inflation could approach 30% annually, with monthly rates between 1% and 2% for the second half of 2025“, hill.
For its part, the REM published by the Central Bank (BCRA) and which analyzes the city’s projections maintains that Inflation could be 3.4% in October, drop to 3.3% in November, rebound to 3.6% in December and reach 3.4%, 3.3% and 3% in January, February and March, respectively.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
