The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report, which brings together the estimates of more than 50 consulting firms and private banks both in Argentina and abroad, improves the perspectives on the progress of the economy compared to the previous edition. Although it does not come close to matching the most optimistic perspectives maintained by the Government.
“In September, President Javier Milei presented the 2025 budget, which aims for revenues to slightly exceed expenses next year thanks to continued moderation in spending. However, the government’s assumptions for GDP growth are notably above our panelists’ forecasts, while the government’s inflation and exchange rate projections are lower,” the document explains.
According to the gurus, by the end of the year inflation would accumulate an increase of 131.4% year-on-year. They previously predicted 141.7%, which represents a significant decrease in estimates. In the 2025 Budget, the Government projected to end this year at 104.4%, but according to the latest data from INDEC, with September inflation at 3.5% monthly, the cumulative figure is already 101.6%.
“Inflation should continue to decline in the future based on a high comparison base, restrained public spending and a recent reduction of a key import tariff. However, currency depreciation and subsidy cuts will keep inflation high by Latin American standards,” the report summarized.
The figure of 131.4% year-on-year inflation is an average of the estimates of consulting firms and banks. There are the most optimistic, such as Quantum Finanzas (116%), Econometrica (117%) and OJF & Asociados (117.5%); and the pessimistic ones such as MAPFRE Economics (190.9%), EMFI (168.5%), Moody’s Analytics (163.7%), Santander (150.5%) and UBS (150.3%).
How much will the dollar be trading at in December 2024?
As for the dollar, Analysts estimate that the wholesale exchange rate will close at $1,135.3 in 2024, a downward correction of $97.9 compared to the last survey. The Government guarantees that the crawling peg at 2% will remain firm, and that the devaluation rate will even decrease towards 2025. On the other hand, the gurus estimate that it should accelerate in the remainder of the year, with an adjustment of almost 16%.
Instead, the blue dollar It would end the year at $1,311, when a month ago they expected it to be around $1,446. “Both the official and parallel exchange rates are expected to weaken in the future,” the report noted.
Finally, LatinFocus explained that triple-digit inflation and strong fiscal consolidation were behind the fall in economic activity, despite the fact that in recent months the agricultural sector has rebounded and there has been an increase in energy production. Analysts predict that the year will close with a GDP contraction of 3.6% (a drop of 0.1 percentage points compared to a month ago), but that it will rebound by 3.4% in 2025.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
