The different indices of the economy show that the V outlet of the Economy is far from occurring. According to the estimates of the Finance Research Center of the Torcuato Di Tella University there is just one 7.6% chance that the economic cycle will reverse in the coming months.
It is about the Leading Index prepared by the CIF based on a dozen indicators such as car sales, cement shipments, the Merval and the price of soybeans, among others.
In the annual comparison, the index went from 136,317 points in September 2023 to 120,291 points in the same month this year. Of the 10 series that make up the index, only 4 rose last month. They were the General Index, the S&P Mervalthe price of the soy and the cement dispatches. The rest was negative.
Compared to the previous month, there was a slight improvement in the leading index of 0.64%. In addition to this, it has been two months with 40% of the series indices in positive territory. The best time of the year was in May and June, when 8 of the 10 indicators were up.
Claudio Caprarulo, economist and director at Analyticamaintained that he is “totally ruled out” the V bounce since the recession this year will continue, while he estimated that growth will come next year.
Caprarulo stated that “although there are some sectors that seem to have hit the bottomalso in others one month it increases a little and the following month they fall again, so the V-shaped rebound is completely ruled out, the recession this year will continue.”
According to the analyst, “there will probably be growth next year.” but slight since the conditions for strong growth in the economy are not met either.”
According to the project 2025 budget that the government sent to Congresspredicts a growth of 5% for next year, after an estimated fall of 3.8% for this year. In such a way that to reach the expected figures, the economy would have to show a strong acceleration from the second semester onwards.
In that senseFor the CEO of AmCham Argentina, Alejandro Díaz, a “slow and heterogeneous” recovery is seen. in Argentina, although he considers that the Government is going in “the right direction.”
The head of the entity that represents United States companies in Argentina considers that “In general we are seeing a weak recovery that is not homogeneous but occurs in a heterogeneous manner”. Díaz assures that “the adjustment of macroeconomic and microeconomic variables of the magnitude that occurred, with adjustment of relative prices and an implicit devaluation was obviously going to impact demand,” which is why he points out that “in some way it was expected.”
Regarding the scenario he observes for next year, he estimates that ““there will be GDP growth between 3.7% and 4% while inflation will be more similar to 35%/37%.”
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
