Elections in Uruguay: last hours of a campaign without political vertigo, but with economic uncertainty

The campaign for elections 2024 comes to an end with some open questions and several certainties, among them, that politics has not managed to wake up an apathetic society that sees the electoral future of its daily life as increasingly distant.

This even though on Sunday, among the things at stake, is the future of the social security systemand the economic and institutional stability tied to it, as a consequence of the plebiscite promoted by the union center PIT-CNT.

There are eleven presidential candidates, but attention falls on three. Yamandu Orsi, of the Broad Front (FA); Alvaro Delgado, of the National Party (PN); and Andrés Ojeda, of the Colorado Party (PC).

The situation in which each of them reaches the first round – the projection that there will be a runoff on November 24 is unanimous – is dissimilar. Orsi has led the voting intention for this Sunday even before the Broad Front candidate was elected. Although it suffered fluctuations in the flow of support, it is consolidated above 40%, the usual floor of its strength.

Delgado’s journey has not been the same. Boosted with more than 60% of the votes in the white party, his voting intention has been falling consistently throughout the campaign. There are those who see in this decline the consequences of some scandals involving PN leaders and the effect of the selection of a running mate, Valeria Ripoll, who joined the nationalist ranks since Communist Party.

Álvaro Delgado closing the 2024 election campaign.jpeg

Álvaro Delgado appealed to the undecided in the face of the decline in white voting intentions.

While the former Secretary of the Presidency saw his support decline, Ojeda, who won the red nomination against various odds, improved his performance. The lawyer, based on a non-traditional campaign by the standards of the Uruguay, He was the only candidate who grew in voting intention throughout the campaign.

Colorado Party Campaign Closing

The Colorado Party closed the campaign with optimism of being able to reach the runoff.

Photo: @AOjedaPColorado

All of this occurred in the shadow of an electorate that maintains a high degree of apathy and indecision. A frequently repeated phrase in the campaign has been the same: “the undecided “They will be key.”

The Broad Front goes to conquer them to achieve a parliamentary majority. Ojeda seduces them to make a hit and enter the runoff. Delgado needs them.

They are also the key to the future of plebiscites, the one of night raids, that although it enjoys social consensus in a country where insecurity is the greatest concern (53%), it would not be approved; and that of rconstitutional form of social securitypromoted by the PIT-CNT.

Plebiscites ballots for elections 2024.jpeg

Uruguayans will also vote on two plebiscites along with the 2024 elections: night raids and social security.

Regarding the latter, it is worth noting that, after almost 4 months of the campaign, with all the presidential candidates, hundreds of economists and businessmen warning about their risks to the stability of the Uruguay and, even with the massive dissemination of the project by the union centre, the level of ignorance is high. Uruguayan society is divided almost equally between those who support it, reject it and ignore it.

“Apathy is what is going to save us from being approved,” Ojeda told Scope days ago. The reading is shared by heads of business chambers and public opinion analysts. But nevertheless, its mere existence among the ballots available on Sunday and the possibility, although distant, of its approval caused unprecedented movements in the Uruguayan market a month ago.

He dollar jumped above 42 pesos and foreign investors got rid of sovereign bonds in pesos for the equivalent of at least 700 million dollars.

Behind it was the concern that the worst omens would come true. Independent studies and government organizations agree that the approval of the social security plebiscite would increase the fiscal deficit by 4%, trigger the country risk, would force the government to increase taxes and confront the State with trials millionaires for the confiscation of savings and the breach of contracts with the AFAP. That’s just to mention a few effects.

Even when the PIT-CNT plebiscite, which proposes lowering the retirement age from 65 to 60 years, equating the minimum retirement to the minimum wage and eliminating the Pension Savings Fund Administrators, is not approved (for this it needs 50% + 1 of the votes), will leave the pension issue installed on the political agenda.

AFAP

The AFAP are at the center of the debate, due to the PIT-CNT plebiscite and the idea of ​​”nationalization” mentioned in the ranks of the Frente Amplio.

Photo: AFAP Republic Networks

J.P. Morgan He warned this in a report to his clients at the beginning of September. A rejection, but with a high level of support, will condition the next government in terms of retirement policy.

The debate seems to have started earlier. The senator and campaign manager of the Frente Amplio, Alejandro Sanchez, He talked about nationalizing the AFAP – which manage funds for about 23,000 million dollars and are buyers of State emissions – and unleashed a storm.

Although he later clarified that his statements were ironic and decontextualized, Delgado and Ojeda did not let it go and attacked. They point out the heterogeneous positions within the Front as a problem that would limit Orsi’s decision-making power.

However, since the current social security reform was approved by the Parliament last year, behind closed doors economic advisors and experts point out that it is a matter of time to return to a system with numerous weak points, as a result of the population aging and the smallest number of young people with formal employment. The accounts simply won’t work. The important thing will then be the conditions in which politics can give rise to this debate.